The Oklahoma City Thunder are favored by 5 points heading into a decisive Game 4 of the opening round of the NBA Playoffs against the New Orleans Pelicans at Smoothie King Center on Monday, starting at 8:30 PM ET on NBA. The Thunder are currently ahead 3-0 in the series. The matchup has an over/under of 208 points.
Our computer predictions for Monday’s game may help you place an informed wager by picking the best bets available.
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Spread: Pelicans (+5) to Cover
- The Thunder are favored by both DraftKings and the model, but the model has them winning by significantly less (5 to 1.9 points). Take the Pelicans and the points.
- New Orleans’ ATS record is 44-36-2 this year.
- When playing as at least 5-point underdogs this year, the Pelicans have an ATS record of 8-4.
- Oklahoma City is 46-35-1 ATS this season.
- The Thunder have an ATS record of 23-14 when playing as at least 5-point favorites this season.
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Total: Over 208
- The DraftKings point total for this game is more than two possessions lower (20.0 points) than the model projection. Put your money on the over.
- Oklahoma City and its opponent have broken the 208-point mark 76 times this season.
- New Orleans’ games have had over 208 points 67 times this season.
- A total of 43 out of the Thunder’s 82 games this season have hit the over.
- Pelicans games have hit the over 36 out of 82 times this season.
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Moneyline Winner: Thunder (-192)
- Prediction: Thunder 115, Pelicans 113
- This season, Oklahoma City has been favored 61 times and won 47, or 77%, of those games.
- New Orleans has come away with 18 wins in the 32 contests it has been listed as the underdog this season.
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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Rebounds Prop: Under 5.5
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averages 30.1 points, 5.5 rebounds and 6.2 assists per contest. Defensively, he averages 2.0 steals (first in league) and 0.9 blocks.
- He has averaged 5.5 rebounds per game, the same as his prop bet on Monday.
- This will be his 79th game with a rebound prop this season, and so far he’s hit the over 37 times.
- The Pelicans are 12th in the NBA in rebounds per game (44.0) and seventh in rebounds allowed (42.3).
See all available player props for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and other Thunder players in this matchup and sign up to place your bets with DraftKings Sportsbook.
All stats in this article refer to the 2023-24 regular season.
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