The Minnesota Timberwolves will look to pull off an upset as slight 1-point underdogs for a decisive Game 4 of the first round of the NBA Playoffs against the Phoenix Suns at Footprint Center on Sunday, tipping off at 9:30 PM ET on TNT. The Timberwolves hold a 3-0 lead in the series. The over/under is 213 for the matchup.
Our computer predictions for Sunday’s game will help you place an informed wager by picking the best bets available.
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Spread: Timberwolves (+1) to Cover
- While DraftKings has the Suns winning by one, the model has the Timberwolves taking home the victory, with a considerable margin between the two spreads (3.7 points). Take the Timberwolves.
- Minnesota is 40-40-2 against the spread this year.
- The Timberwolves have an ATS record of 12-9 when playing as at least 1-point underdogs this year.
- Phoenix is 35-45-2 against the spread this season.
- When playing as at least 1-point favorites this season, the Suns have an ATS record of 25-34-2.
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Total: Over 213
- The model projects a total (224.2 points) much higher than the one set by DraftKings for this game (213 points). Take the over.
- Phoenix and its opponent have broken the 213-point mark 68 times this year.
- So far this season, 58 Minnesota’s games have featured more than 213 points scored.
- The Suns and their opponents have combined to hit the over 36 out of 82 times this season.
- So far this season, 41 out of the Timberwolves’ 82 games with an over/under have gone over the point total.
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Moneyline Winner: Timberwolves (-105)
- Prediction: Timberwolves 113, Suns 111
- This season, Phoenix has won 39 out of the 60 games, or 65%, in which it has been favored.
- Minnesota has come away with nine wins in the 20 contests it has been listed as the underdog this season.
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Kevin Durant Points Prop: Under 25.5
- Kevin Durant averages 27.1 points, 6.6 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game. Defensively, he averages 0.9 steals and 1.2 blocks.
- Durant has recorded 27.1 points per game in the 2023-24 season, 1.6 points higher than Sunday’s over/under.
- Durant has gone up against a points prop bet in 77 games this season, and he’s hit the over 36 times.
- In 2023-24, the Timberwolves are 18th in the league offensively (113.0 points scored per game) and best defensively (106.5 points conceded).
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Anthony Edwards Rebounds Prop: Under 5.5
- Anthony Edwards delivers 25.9 points, 5.4 rebounds and 5.1 assists per game for the Timberwolves.
- He has grabbed 5.4 boards per game, which is less than his prop bet in Sunday’s game (5.5).
- This will be his 81st game with a rebound prop this season, and so far he has hit the over on 38 occasions.
- The Suns are grabbing 44.1 boards per game this year (10th-ranked in NBA), and they’ve allowed just 41.3 rebounds per game (third-best).
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All stats in this article refer to the 2023-24 regular season.
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