The Milwaukee Bucks will look to pull off an upset as 10-point underdogs in Game 4 of the first round of the NBA Playoffs against the Indiana Pacers at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Sunday, starting at 7:00 PM ET on TNT. The Pacers are ahead 2-1 in the series. The matchup has an over/under of 216.5.
Check out below to dig into the best bets you can place on Sunday’s game, based on our computer predictions.
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Spread: Bucks (+10) to Cover
- The spread for this game suggested by the model (4.7 points) is much tighter than the 10-point edge DraftKings gives to the Pacers, though the data still has them as the favorite. Put your money on the Bucks to cover.
- Milwaukee is 35-46-1 against the spread this season.
- The Bucks have been an underdog by 10 points or more two times this year, and covered the spread in one of those games.
- Indiana has a 44-35-3 record against the spread this season.
- The Pacers have covered the spread seven times this season (7-2 ATS) when playing as at least 10-point favorites.
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Total: Over 216.5
- In this matchup, the model projects a total (238.9 points) much higher than the DraftKings over/under (216.5 points). Bet on the over.
- Indiana and its opponent have broken the 216.5-point mark 75 times this year.
- Milwaukee’s games have gone over 216.5 points on 66 occasions this season.
- The Pacers and their opponents have combined to hit the over 42 out of 82 times this season.
- In the Bucks’ 82 chances this season, the combined scoring has gone over the point total 41 times.
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Moneyline Winner: Pacers (-410)
- Prediction: Pacers 122, Bucks 117
- This season, Indiana has been favored 44 times and won 27, or 61.4%, of those games.
- Milwaukee has come away with four wins in the 15 contests it has been listed as the underdog this season.
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Myles Turner Points Prop: Over 20.5
- Myles Turner posts 17.1 points, 1.3 assists and 6.9 boards per game.
- The 20.5-point prop total for Turner on Sunday is 3.4 higher than his season scoring average, which is 17.1.
- He is 36-for-81 at hitting the over on his points prop this season.
- The Bucks are the fourth-best team in the league in points scored (119.0 per game) and 21st in points conceded (116.4).
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Bobby Portis Points Prop: Over 19.5
- Bobby Portis gets the Bucks 13.8 points, 7.4 rebounds and 1.3 assists per game while putting up 0.8 steals and 0.4 blocked shots.
- Portis’ 13.8-point scoring average is 5.7 less than Sunday’s prop total.
- Portis has had 68 chances to hit the over on a point prop this season and came through 37 times.
- Because of the Pacers’ defensive struggles this season, ranking fourth-worst in the NBA with 120.2 points allowed per game, they’ve had to count on their offense, which ranks best in the league posting 123.3 points per game.
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All stats in this article refer to the 2023-24 regular season.
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