The Denver Nuggets bring a 3-0 series lead into a decisive Game 4 of the opening round of the NBA Playoffs. The Nuggets enter the matchup as favorites by 3.5 points for the game, which airs on ABC at 8:30 PM ET. The matchup has a point total of 218.
If you are trying to make an informed wager on Saturday’s game, see the best bets available in this matchup, in this article (according to our computer predictions).
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Spread: Lakers (+3.5) to Cover
- The model favors the Nuggets by 2.5 points, just 1.0 fewer than the 3.5-point spread set by DraftKings.
- Los Angeles has a 38-44-0 record against the spread this season.
- The Lakers have been an underdog by 3.5 points or more 19 times this season, and covered the spread in nine of those games.
- So far this season, Denver has put together a 38-42-2 record against the spread.
- The Nuggets have been favored by 3.5 points or more 62 times this season, and covered the spread in 30 of those matchups.
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Total: Over 218
- In this matchup, the model projects a total (229.2 points) much higher than the DraftKings over/under (218 points). Bet on the over.
- Denver and its opponent have broken the 218-point mark 51 times this year.
- There have been 67 Los Angeles’ games this year with more than 218 points scored.
- The Nuggets and their opponents have combined to hit the over 35 out of 82 times this season.
- In the Lakers’ 82 chances this year, the combined scoring has gone over the point total 47 times.
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Moneyline Winner: Nuggets (-170)
- Prediction: Nuggets 116, Lakers 113
- This season, Denver has been favored 72 times and won 53, or 73.6%, of those games.
- Los Angeles has been victorious in 15, or 42.9%, of the 35 contests it has been chosen as an underdog in this season.
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Jamal Murray Points Prop: Over 24.5
- Jamal Murray posts 21.2 points, 4.1 rebounds and 6.5 assists per game. Defensively, he averages 1.0 steal and 0.7 blocks.
- Murray’s 21.2 points per game are 3.3 fewer than Saturday’s over/under.
- He has had a points prop in 65 games this season, and has exceeded the total 26 times.
- At 118.0 points scored per game and 117.4 points allowed, the Lakers are sixth in the NBA offensively and 23rd on defense.
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D’Angelo Russell Points Prop: Under 14.5
- D’Angelo Russell is putting up 18.0 points, 3.1 rebounds and 6.3 assists per contest. He is making 45.6% of his shots from the field and 41.5% from 3-point range, with 3.0 treys per game (ninth in NBA).
- The 18.0 points Russell scores per game are 3.5 more than his over/under on Saturday (14.5).
- Russell has had 62 chances to hit the over on a point prop this season and came through 35 times.
- So far this season, the Nuggets are scoring 114.9 points per game (14th-ranked in NBA) and ceding 109.6 points per contest (sixth-ranked).
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All stats in this article refer to the 2023-24 regular season.
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