The Miami Heat will look to pull off an upset as 9.5-point underdogs heading into Game 3 of the first round of the NBA Playoffs against the Boston Celtics at FTX Arena on Saturday, starting at 6:00 PM ET on TNT. The series is tied 1-1. The over/under is set at 205 for the matchup.
Before you make an informed wager on the matchup, take a look at the best bets available for Saturday’s game according to our computer predictions.
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Spread: Heat (+9.5) to Cover
- The model favors the Celtics by 7.5 points, just 2.0 fewer than the 9.5-point spread set by DraftKings.
- Miami’s ATS record is 40-39-3 this year.
- Boston has a 42-36-4 record against the spread this season.
- When playing as at least 9.5-point favorites this season, the Celtics have an ATS record of 18-13-2.
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Total: Over 205
- The DraftKings point total for this game is more than two possessions lower (18.7 points) than the model projection. Put your money on the over.
- Boston’s games have finished with more than 205 points 76 times so far this year.
- Miami’s games have gone over 205 points on 65 occasions this season.
- In the Celtics’ 82 games this season, the combined scoring has gone over the point total 43 times.
- Heat games have hit the over 35 out of 82 times this year.
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Moneyline Winner: Celtics (-440)
- Prediction: Celtics 116, Heat 108
- This season, Boston has been favored 79 times and won 63, or 79.7%, of those games.
- Miami has been chosen as underdogs in 35 games this year and has walked away with the win 11 times (31.4%) in those games.
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Derrick White Points Prop: Under 11.5
- Derrick White puts up 15.2 points, 4.2 rebounds and 5.2 assists per contest. Defensively, he averages 1.0 steal and 1.2 blocks.
- The 11.5-point over/under set for White on Saturday is 3.7 lower than his season scoring average of 15.2.
- He has gone over 37 times on a points prop this season (in 77 opportunities).
- In 2023-24, the Heat are fifth-worst in the NBA offensively (110.1 points scored per game) but third-best on defense (108.4 points allowed).
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Duncan Robinson Points Prop: Under 7.5
- The Heat are receiving 12.9 points, 2.6 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game from Duncan Robinson this season.
- Saturday’s points prop for Robinson is 7.5. That is 5.4 less than his season average.
- Robinson has hit the points prop over at a 29-for-50 clip this season.
- Things are clicking for the Celtics, who are scoring 120.6 points per game (second-best in NBA) and ceding 109.2 points per contest (fifth-best).
Check out the prop bets available for Duncan Robinson and other Heat players in this game and sign up to place your bets with DraftKings Sportsbook.
All stats in this article refer to the 2023-24 regular season.
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