The Dallas Mavericks and the Los Angeles Clippers meet in Game 3 of the first round of the NBA Playoffs. The Mavericks enter the matchup as favorites by 4.5 points for the game, which airs on ESPN at 8:00 PM ET. The matchup’s point total is 213.5.
Our computer predictions for Friday’s game can help you make an informed wager by picking the best bets available.
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Spread: Clippers (+4.5) to Cover
- The spread for this matchup suggested by the model (2.2 points) is a little tighter than the 4.5-point edge DraftKings gives to the Mavericks, though the data still has them as the favorite.
- Los Angeles has a 38-44-0 record against the spread this season.
- The Clippers have been an underdog by 4.5 points or more eight times this year, and covered the spread in three of those matchups.
- Dallas is 48-34-0 against the spread this season.
- The Mavericks have covered the spread 17 times this season (17-12 ATS) when playing as at least 4.5-point favorites.
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Total: Over 213.5
- The DraftKings point total for this game is more than two possessions lower (16.4 points) than the model projection. Put your money on the over.
- Dallas’ games have finished with more than 213.5 points 69 times so far this year.
- Los Angeles’ games have gone over 213.5 points on 63 occasions this season.
- In the Mavericks’ 82 games this season, the combined scoring has gone over the point total 36 times.
- Clippers games have hit the over 36 out of 82 times this year.
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Moneyline Winner: Mavericks (-185)
- Prediction: Mavericks 116, Clippers 114
- Dallas has won 37, or 75.5%, of the 49 games it has played as the favorite this season.
- Los Angeles has been an underdog in 18 games this season and has come away with the win five times (27.8%) in those contests.
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Kyrie Irving Rebounds Prop: Under 4.5
- Kyrie Irving averages 25.6 points, 5.0 rebounds and 5.2 assists per contest, shooting 49.7% from the floor and 41.1% from downtown with 3.0 made 3-pointers per game (ninth in league).
- His per-game rebounding average of 5.0 is 0.5 higher than his prop bet on Friday (4.5).
- This will be his 64th game this season with a rebound prop and so far he has hit the over 29 times.
- The Clippers are 19th in the league in rebounds per game (43.0) and fifth-best in rebounds conceded (42.2).
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Paul George Rebounds Prop: Over 4.5
- On a per-game basis, Paul George gets the Clippers 22.6 points, 5.2 rebounds and 3.5 assists. He also averages 1.5 steals (sixth in NBA) and 0.5 blocked shots.
- He has averaged 0.7 more rebounds per game (5.2) than his prop bet total in Friday’s game (4.5).
- This will be his 77th game with a rebound prop this season, and so far he’s hit the over 35 times.
- The Mavericks are grabbing 42.9 rebounds per game (21st-ranked in league). They are giving up 45.1 rebounds per contest (25th-ranked).
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All stats in this article refer to the 2023-24 regular season.
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