The Phoenix Suns are favored by 5 points heading into Game 3 of the opening round of the NBA Playoffs against the Minnesota Timberwolves at Footprint Center on Friday, starting at 10:30 PM ET on ESPN. The Timberwolves are leading the series 2-0. The matchup’s point total is 208.
Our computer predictions in this article will help you pick what are the best bets available for Friday’s game.
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Spread: Timberwolves (+5) to Cover
- The model line is much more favorable to the Timberwolves compared to the DraftKings line, a 7.0 point difference, and has them favored to win Friday’s game outright. Put your money on the Timberwolves.
- Minnesota’s ATS record is 40-40-2 this season.
- The Timberwolves have been an underdog by 5 points or more five times this year, and covered the spread in four of those games.
- So far this season, Phoenix has put together a 35-45-2 record against the spread.
- When playing as at least 5-point favorites this season, the Suns have an ATS record of 13-20-1.
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Total: Over 208
- The DraftKings point total for this game is more than two possessions lower (16.0 points) than the model projection. Put your money on the over.
- In 74 games this year, Phoenix and its opponent have combined to score more than 208 points.
- Minnesota’s games have had over 208 points 67 times this year.
- The Suns and their opponents have combined to hit the over 36 out of 82 times this season.
- In the Timberwolves’ 82 chances this year, the combined scoring has gone over the point total 41 times.
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Moneyline Winner: Timberwolves (+180)
- Prediction: Timberwolves 113, Suns 111
- Phoenix has entered the game as favorites 60 times this season and won 39, or 65%, of those games.
- Minnesota has been victorious in nine, or 45%, of the 20 contests it has been chosen as an underdog in this season.
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Devin Booker Points Prop: Under 26.5
- Devin Booker puts up 27.1 points, 6.9 assists and 4.5 rebounds per contest.
- Booker is scoring 27.1 points per game, 0.6 more than Friday’s prop total.
- Booker has had 69 chances to hit the over on a point prop this season and came through 27 times.
- Offensively, the Timberwolves are the 18th-ranked squad in the NBA (113.0 points per game). Defensively, they are best (106.5 points conceded per game).
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Rudy Gobert Rebounds Prop: Under 12.5
- On a per-game basis, Rudy Gobert gets the Timberwolves 14.0 points, 12.9 rebounds and 1.3 assists. He also averages 0.7 steals and 2.1 blocked shots (sixth in league).
- His per-game rebound average of 12.9 is 0.4 more than his prop bet over/under in Friday’s game (12.5).
- He has grabbed more rebounds than the total set for him by sportsbooks 41 times this season in his 81 games with a prop.
- The Suns are grabbing 44.1 rebounds per game this year (10th-ranked in NBA), and they’ve given up just 41.3 rebounds per contest (third-best).
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All stats in this article refer to the 2023-24 regular season.
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