The Indiana Pacers and the Milwaukee Bucks meet in Game 3 of the first round of the NBA Playoffs. The Pacers enter the matchup as favorites by 6.5 points for the game, which will be broadcast on ESPN at 5:30 PM ET. The matchup has an over/under set at 223 points.
Our computer predictions in this article will help you pick what are the best bets available for Friday’s game.
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Spread: Bucks (+6.5) to Cover
- The model favors the Pacers by 4.9 points, just 1.6 fewer than the 6.5-point spread set by DraftKings.
- Milwaukee has a 35-46-1 record against the spread this season.
- The Bucks have covered the spread once this season (1-1 ATS) when playing as at least 6.5-point underdogs.
- Indiana is 44-35-3 against the spread this season.
- When playing as at least 6.5-point favorites this season, the Pacers have an ATS record of 12-9-1.
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Total: Over 223
- In this game, the model projects a total (238.9 points) considerably higher than the DraftKings over/under (223 points). Bet on the over.
- A total of 70 times so far this year, Indiana and its opponent have combined for more than 223 points.
- So far this year, 58 Milwaukee’s games have featured over 223 points scored.
- Pacers games have hit the over 42 out of 82 times this season.
- The Bucks and their opponents have combined to go over the point total 41 out of 82 times this season.
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Moneyline Winner: Pacers (-245)
- Prediction: Pacers 122, Bucks 117
- Indiana has won 27, or 61.4%, of the 44 games it has played as the favorite this season.
- Milwaukee has come away with four wins in the 15 contests it has been listed as the underdog this season.
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Myles Turner Points Prop: Over 19.5
- Myles Turner posts 17.1 points, 6.9 rebounds and 1.3 assists per game. At the other end, he averages 0.5 steals and 1.9 blocks (ninth in NBA).
- The 17.1 points Turner scores per game are 2.4 less than his prop total on Friday.
- He has hit the over on his points prop on 36 occasions this season (in 81 games with such a prop).
- The Bucks are the fourth-best squad in the NBA in points scored (119.0 per game) and 21st in points allowed (116.4).
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Bobby Portis Points Prop: Over 17.5
- Bobby Portis gives the Bucks 13.8 points, 7.4 rebounds and 1.3 assists per game while averaging 0.8 steals and 0.4 blocked shots.
- The 17.5-point over/under set for Portis on Friday is 3.7 higher than his scoring average on the season.
- Portis has hit the points prop over at a 37-for-68 clip this season.
- Although the Pacers are ceding 120.2 points per game (fourth-worst in NBA) on defense, their offense has been excellent, as they rank best in the league by scoring 123.3 points per game.
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All stats in this article refer to the 2023-24 regular season.
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