The Cleveland Cavaliers will look to pull off an upset as slight 2.5-point underdogs in Game 3 of the first round of the NBA Playoffs against the Orlando Magic at Amway Center on Thursday, tipping off at 7:00 PM ET on NBA. The Cavaliers have a 2-0 lead in the series. The over/under is 201 for the matchup.
If you are trying to make an informed wager on Thursday’s game, find out the best bets available for this matchup, below (according to our computer predictions).
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Spread: Cavaliers (+2.5) to Cover
- The spread for this game suggested by the model (1.7 points) is a little tighter than the 2.5-point edge DraftKings gives to the Magic, though the data still has them as the favorite.
- Cleveland is 38-42-2 ATS this year.
- The Cavaliers have been an underdog by 2.5 points or more 26 times this season, and covered the spread in 13 of those matchups.
- Orlando has a 51-31-0 record against the spread this season.
- When playing as at least 2.5-point favorites this season, the Magic have an ATS record of 24-10.
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Total: Over 201
- In this matchup, the model projects a total (219.9 points) substantially higher than the DraftKings over/under (201 points). Bet on the over.
- A total of 70 times so far this year, Orlando and its opponent have combined to score more than 201 points.
- Cleveland’s games have had over 201 points 76 times this season.
- In the Magic’s 82 games this season, the combined scoring has gone over the point total 36 times.
- A total of 40 Cavaliers games this season have hit the over.
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Moneyline Winner: Magic (-135)
- Prediction: Magic 111, Cavaliers 109
- Orlando has won 30, or 78.9%, of the 38 games it has played as the favorite this season.
- Cleveland has been an underdog in 29 games this season and has come away with the win 11 times (37.9%) in those contests.
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Franz Wagner Points Prop: Under 19.5
- Franz Wagner posts 19.7 points, 5.3 boards and 3.7 assists per game, shooting 48.2% from the field and 28.2% from downtown with 1.3 made 3-pointers per game.
- Wagner is posting 19.7 points per game, 0.2 more than Thursday’s prop total.
- So far this season, Wagner is 35-for-73 at going over the total set for his points prop.
- The Cavaliers are 20th in the NBA in points scored (112.6 per game) and seventh in points conceded (110.2).
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Jarrett Allen Rebounds Prop: Under 12.5
- Jarrett Allen puts up 16.5 points, 10.5 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game for the Cavaliers.
- His rebounding average — 10.5 — is 2.0 lower than his over/under on Thursday.
- He has grabbed more rebounds than his over/under in 33 of his 76 games with that prop available this season.
- The Magic are pulling down 42.3 rebounds per game this year (25th-ranked in NBA), and they’ve ceded only 39.9 rebounds per game (best).
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All stats in this article refer to the 2023-24 regular season.
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