The Oklahoma City Thunder are favored by 7.5 points heading into Game 2 of the opening round of the NBA Playoffs against the New Orleans Pelicans at Paycom Center on Wednesday, beginning at 9:30 PM ET on TNT. The Thunder are up 1-0 in the series. The matchup’s point total is 211.5.
Dive into the best bets available (based on our computer predictions) for Wednesday’s game, before you make an informed wager on the matchup.
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Spread: Pelicans (+7.5) to Cover
- The spread for this game suggested by the model (6.3 points) is a little tighter than the 7.5-point edge DraftKings gives to the Thunder, though the data still has them as the favorite.
- So far this season, New Orleans has put together a 44-36-2 record against the spread.
- The Pelicans have covered the spread twice when an underdog by 7.5 points or more this season (in three opportunities).
- So far this season, Oklahoma City has compiled a 46-35-1 record against the spread.
- When playing as at least 7.5-point favorites this season, the Thunder have an ATS record of 16-11.
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Total: Over 211.5
- The model predicts a total (228.5 points) much higher than the one set by DraftKings for this matchup (211.5 points). Take the over.
- In 70 games this season, Oklahoma City and its opponent have combined for more than 211.5 points.
- So far this year, 63 New Orleans’ games have featured more than 211.5 points scored.
- Thunder games have gone over the point total 43 out of 82 times this season.
- Pelicans games have gone over the point total 36 out of 82 times this season.
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Moneyline Winner: Thunder (-340)
- Prediction: Thunder 117, Pelicans 111
- This season, Oklahoma City has been favored 61 times and won 47, or 77%, of those games.
- New Orleans has been an underdog in 32 games this season and has come away with the win 18 times (56.2%) in those contests.
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Chet Holmgren Rebounds Prop: Under 9.5
- Chet Holmgren posts 16.5 points, 7.9 rebounds and 2.4 assists per contest. Defensively, he averages 0.6 steals and 2.3 blocks (fourth in league).
- He collects 7.9 rebounds per game, 1.6 fewer than his prop bet on Wednesday.
- He’s grabbed more rebounds than the listed total for him 37 times this season in his 81 games bookmakers set a prop.
- The Pelicans are 12th in the NBA in rebounds per game (44.0) and seventh in rebounds conceded (42.3).
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CJ McCollum Rebounds Prop: Over 4.5
- On a per-game basis, CJ McCollum gets the Pelicans 20.0 points, 4.3 rebounds and 4.6 assists. He also averages 0.9 steals and 0.6 blocked shots.
- His per-game rebound average — 4.3 — is 0.2 less than his prop bet over/under in Wednesday’s game (4.5).
- He has gone over his rebound total in 33 of 66 games with a prop so far this season.
- The Thunder are grabbing just 42.0 boards per game (fourth-worst in NBA), and they are allowing 44.7 rebounds per contest (23rd-ranked).
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All stats in this article refer to the 2023-24 regular season.
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