The Los Angeles Lakers will look to prove the oddsmakers wrong as 7-point underdogs in Game 2 of the first round of the NBA Playoffs against the Denver Nuggets at Ball Arena on Monday, beginning at 10:00 PM ET on TNT. The Nuggets are ahead 1-0 in the series. The point total in the matchup is 223.5.
Our computer predictions for Monday’s game will help you make an informed wager by picking the best bets available.
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Spread: Nuggets (-7) to Cover
- The DraftKings line for this game has the Nuggets favored by seven, while the model predicts they’ll win by slightly more (8.1 points).
- Denver is 38-42-2 against the spread this season.
- The Nuggets have covered the spread 18 times this season (18-18-1 ATS) when playing as at least 7-point favorites.
- Los Angeles’ ATS record is 38-44-0 this season.
- The Lakers have been an underdog by 7 points or more four times this year, and covered the spread in three of those matchups.
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Total: Over 223.5
- The model projects a total 6.2 points higher than the one set by DraftKings for this game.
- Denver and its opponent have broken the 223.5-point mark 41 times this year.
- Los Angeles’ games have had over 223.5 points 58 times this season.
- So far this season, 35 out of the Nuggets’ 82 games have hit the over.
- So far this year, 47 out of the Lakers’ 82 games with an over/under have gone over the point total.
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Moneyline Winner: Nuggets (-305)
- Prediction: Nuggets 119, Lakers 111
- Denver has won 53, or 73.6%, of the 72 games it has played as the favorite this season.
- Los Angeles has won in 15, or 42.9%, of the 35 contests it has been named as the odds-on underdog this year.
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Michael Porter Jr. Points Prop: Over 17.5
- Michael Porter Jr. posts 16.7 points, 1.5 assists and 7.0 boards per contest.
- The 17.5-point prop bet set for Porter on Monday is 0.8 higher than his scoring average on the season.
- Porter has had 77 chances to hit the over on a point prop this season and came through 39 times.
- The Lakers score 118.0 points per game and give up 117.4, making them sixth in the league on offense and 23rd on defense.
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Anthony Davis Points Prop: Under 24.5
- On a per-game basis, Anthony Davis gets the Lakers 24.7 points, 12.6 rebounds and 3.5 assists. He also averages 1.2 steals and 2.3 blocked shots (fourth in NBA).
- The 24.7 points Davis scores per game are 0.2 more than his over/under on Monday.
- Davis has gone over 31 times on a points prop this season (in 79 opportunities).
- The Nuggets are averaging 114.9 points per game (14th-ranked in NBA) this season, while allowing 109.6 points per contest (sixth-ranked).
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All stats in this article refer to the 2023-24 regular season.
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