The Boston Celtics are favored by 14 points ahead of Game 1 of the opening round of the NBA Playoffs against the Miami Heat at TD Garden on Sunday, beginning at 1:00 PM ET on ABC. The matchup’s point total is 209.
Dive into the best bets available (according to our computer predictions) for Sunday’s game, before you place an informed wager on the contest.
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Spread: Heat (+14) to Cover
- The line for this game set by DraftKings and the model’s prediction are essentially the same (within 0.2 points of each other).
- Miami has a 40-39-3 record against the spread this season.
- So far this season, Boston has compiled a 42-36-4 record against the spread.
- The Celtics are 8-5 ATS this season when playing as at least 14-point favorites.
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Total: Over 209
- The model predicts a total (224.0 points) much higher than the one set by DraftKings for this game (209 points). Take the over.
- Boston’s games have had more than 209 points scored on 76 occasions this year.
- So far this year, 58 Miami’s games have featured more than 209 points scored.
- Celtics games have gone over the point total 43 out of 82 times this season.
- Heat games have hit the over 35 out of 82 times this year.
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Moneyline Winner: Celtics (-1200)
- Prediction: Celtics 119, Heat 105
- Boston has been the favorite in 79 games this season and won 63 (79.7%) of those contests.
- Miami has come away with 11 wins in the 35 contests it has been listed as the underdog this season.
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Jaylen Brown Points Prop: Under 21.5
- Jaylen Brown puts up 23.0 points, 5.5 rebounds and 3.6 assists per contest, shooting 49.9% from the floor and 35.4% from downtown with 2.1 made 3-pointers per contest.
- The 21.5-point prop total set for Brown on Sunday is 1.5 less than his scoring average on the season (23.0).
- So far this season, Brown is 38-for-77 at going over the total set for his points prop.
- Offensively the Heat are the fifth-worst squad in the league (110.1 points per game). However on defense they are third-best (108.4 points conceded per game).
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Bam Adebayo Points Prop: Under 17.5
- Bam Adebayo puts up 19.3 points, 10.4 rebounds and 3.9 assists per game for the Heat.
- The 17.5-point over/under for Adebayo on Sunday is 1.8 lower than his scoring average.
- Adebayo is 32-for-73 at scoring more than his points prop this season.
- It’s been a dominant stretch for the Celtics, who are scoring 120.6 points per game (second-best in NBA) and allowing 109.2 points per contest (fifth-best).
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All stats in this article refer to the 2023-24 regular season.
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