The Miami Heat and the Chicago Bulls meet to begin the first round of the NBA Playoffs. The Heat enter the matchup as favorites by 1.5 points for the game, which will be broadcast on ESPN at 7:00 PM ET. The matchup has an over/under set at 207.5 points.
Our computer predictions below will help you decide what are the best bets available for Friday’s game.
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Spread: Heat (-1.5) to Cover
- The DraftKings line for this game has the Heat favored by 1.5, while the model predicts they’ll win by considerably more (6.5 points). Put your money on the Heat.
- So far this season, Miami has put together a 40-39-3 record against the spread.
- The Heat have been favored by 1.5 points or more 44 times this season, and covered the spread in 21 of those matchups.
- Chicago’s ATS record is 41-40-1 this season.
- The Bulls have been an underdog by 1.5 points or more 46 times this year, and covered the spread in 24 of those matchups.
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Total: Over 207.5
- The DraftKings point total for this matchup is more than two possessions lower (14.8 points) than the model projection. Put your money on the over.
- Miami and its opponent have broken the 207.5-point mark 59 times this season.
- There have been 71 Chicago’s games this season with more than 207.5 points scored.
- Heat games have gone over the point total 35 out of 82 times this season.
- So far this year, 45 out of the Bulls’ 82 games with an over/under have gone over the point total.
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Moneyline Winner: Heat (-120)
- Prediction: Heat 114, Bulls 108
- Miami has entered the game as favorites 47 times this season and won 35, or 74.5%, of those games.
- Chicago has come away with 19 wins in the 48 contests it has been listed as the underdog this season.
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Jaime Jaquez Jr. Assists Prop: Over 3.5
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. posts 11.9 points, 2.6 assists and 3.8 rebounds per contest.
- Jaquez Jr. has picked up 2.6 assists per game, 0.9 less than Friday’s over/under (3.5).
- In 37 games with a set total this season, Jaquez Jr. has dished out enough assists to hit the over in 15 of those contests .
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Nikola Vucevic Points Prop: Under 16.5
- The Bulls are receiving 18.0 points, 10.5 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game from Nikola Vucevic this year.
- Vucevic’s 18.0 points per game average is 1.5 points more than Friday’s over/under.
- In 75 games this season with a points prop total, Vucevic has gone over the total 38 times.
- Because of the Heat’s offensive struggles this year, ranking fifth-worst in the NBA with 110.1 points per game, they’ve had to rely on their defense, which ranks third-best in the league by giving up 108.4 points per game.
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All stats in this article refer to the 2023-24 regular season.
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