The Philadelphia 76ers will look to pull off an upset as 4.5-point underdogs for Game 1 of the first round of the NBA Playoffs against the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden on Saturday, starting at 6:00 PM ET on ESPN. The matchup has an over/under set at 208.5 points.
Before you make an informed wager on the matchup, see the best bets available for Saturday’s game based on our computer predictions.
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Spread: Knicks (-4.5) to Cover
- The DraftKings line for this game has the Knicks favored by 4.5, while the model predicts they’ll win by slightly more (6.1 points).
- New York is 43-36-3 ATS this season.
- The Knicks have been favored by 4.5 points or more 33 times this season, and covered the spread in 18 of those matchups.
- Philadelphia’s ATS record is 48-34-0 this year.
- The 76ers have covered the spread 11 times this year (11-8 ATS) when playing as at least 4.5-point underdogs.
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Total: Over 208.5
- The DraftKings point total for this matchup is more than two possessions lower (15.0 points) than the model projection. Put your money on the over.
- A total of 58 times so far this season, New York and its opponent have combined to score more than 208.5 points.
- Philadelphia’s games have gone over 208.5 points on 67 occasions this year.
- A total of 37 out of the Knicks’ 82 games this season have gone over the point total.
- The 76ers and their opponents have combined to hit the over 43 out of 82 times this season.
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Moneyline Winner: Knicks (-175)
- Prediction: Knicks 115, 76ers 109
- New York has won 36, or 76.6%, of the 47 games it has played as the favorite this season.
- Philadelphia has been chosen as underdogs in 32 games this year and has walked away with the win nine times (28.1%) in those games.
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Donte DiVincenzo Points Prop: Under 17.5
- Donte DiVincenzo puts up 15.5 points, 2.7 assists and 3.7 rebounds per contest.
- The 15.5 points DiVincenzo scores per game are 2.0 less than his over/under on Saturday.
- He is 31-for-70 at hitting the over on his points prop this season.
- In 2023-24, the 76ers are 15th in the league on offense (114.6 points scored per game) and ninth defensively (111.5 points conceded).
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Tobias Harris Points Prop: Under 13.5
- The 76ers are receiving 17.2 points, 6.5 rebounds and 3.1 assists per game from Tobias Harris this season.
- The 13.5-point total set for Harris on Saturday is 3.7 less than his season scoring average.
- Harris has hit the points prop over at a 31-for-77 clip this season.
- The Knicks own a top-five defense this year, ranking second-best in the league with 108.2 points allowed per game. Offensively, they rank 19th with 112.8 points scored per contest.
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All stats in this article refer to the 2023-24 regular season.
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