The Los Angeles Lakers will look to prove the oddsmakers wrong as 6.5-point underdogs in Game 1 of the first round of the NBA Playoffs against the Denver Nuggets at Ball Arena on Saturday, tipping off at 8:30 PM ET on ABC. The matchup has an over/under of 226 points.
If you are looking to make an informed wager on Saturday’s game, dig into the best bets available for this matchup, in the article below (based on our computer predictions).
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Spread: Nuggets (-6.5) to Cover
- The model projects the Nuggets to win, just as DraftKings does, but the model favors them by slightly more points (7.9 to 6.5).
- Denver is 38-42-2 ATS this season.
- The Nuggets have an ATS record of 20-19-1 when playing as at least 6.5-point favorites this season.
- Los Angeles is 38-44-0 against the spread this season.
- The Lakers have been an underdog by 6.5 points or more four times this season, and covered the spread in three of those games.
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Total: Over 226
- The model projects a total 3.8 points higher than the one set by DraftKings for this matchup.
- In 35 games this season, Denver and its opponent have combined to score more than 226 points.
- There have been 58 Los Angeles’ games this year with more than 226 points scored.
- Nuggets games have hit the over 35 out of 82 times this season.
- So far this year, 47 out of the Lakers’ 82 games with an over/under have hit the over.
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Moneyline Winner: Nuggets (-258)
- Prediction: Nuggets 119, Lakers 111
- Denver has been the favorite in 72 games this season and won 53 (73.6%) of those contests.
- Los Angeles has been victorious in 15, or 42.9%, of the 35 contests it has been chosen as an underdog in this season.
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Michael Porter Jr. Points Prop: Over 16.5
- Michael Porter Jr. posts 16.7 points, 1.5 assists and 7.0 rebounds per contest.
- The 16.7 points Porter scores per game are 0.2 more than his over/under on Saturday (16.5).
- So far this season, Porter is 39-for-77 at going over the total set for his points prop.
- On offense the Lakers are the sixth-ranked squad in the league (118.0 points per game). Defensively they are 23rd (117.4 points conceded per game).
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Anthony Davis Points Prop: Under 23.5
- On a per-game basis, Anthony Davis gives the Lakers 24.7 points, 12.6 rebounds and 3.5 assists. He also averages 1.2 steals and 2.3 blocked shots (fourth in NBA).
- Davis’ 24.7 points per game are 1.2 points higher than Saturday’s over/under.
- Davis has hit the over on his points prop on 31 occasions this season (in 79 games with such a prop).
- Offensively, the Nuggets are putting up 114.9 points per game (14th-ranked in league). They are ceding 109.6 points per contest on defense (sixth-ranked).
Check out the prop bets available for Anthony Davis and other Lakers players in this game and sign up to place your bets with DraftKings Sportsbook.
All stats in this article refer to the 2023-24 regular season.
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