The Philadelphia 76ers and the Miami Heat square off in an NBA Playoffs Play-In matchup. The 76ers enter the matchup as favorites by 5.5 points for the game, which will be broadcast on ESPN at 7:00 PM ET. The matchup has a point total of 207.5.
Check out below to dig into the best bets you can place on Wednesday’s game, based on our computer predictions.
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Spread: Heat (+5.5) to Cover
- The spread for this matchup suggested by the model (3.7 points) is a little bit less than the 5.5-point edge DraftKings gives to the 76ers, though the data still has them as the favorite.
- Miami’s ATS record is 40-39-3 this season.
- The Heat have an ATS record of 10-5 when playing as at least 5.5-point underdogs this year.
- Philadelphia has a 48-34-0 record against the spread this season.
- The 76ers have covered the spread 21 times this season (21-10 ATS) when playing as at least 5.5-point favorites.
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Total: Over 207.5
- The DraftKings point total for this game is more than two possessions lower (14.8 points) than the model projection. Put your money on the over.
- A total of 67 times so far this season, Philadelphia and its opponent have combined to score more than 207.5 points.
- Miami’s games have had over 207.5 points 59 times this year.
- 76ers games have gone over the point total 43 out of 82 times this season.
- Heat games have hit the over 35 out of 82 times this season.
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Moneyline Winner: 76ers (-218)
- Prediction: 76ers 113, Heat 109
- This season, Philadelphia has won 38 out of the 49 games, or 77.6%, in which it has been favored.
- Miami has been victorious in 11, or 31.4%, of the 35 contests it has been chosen as an underdog in this season.
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Tyrese Maxey Points Prop: Under 24.5
- Tyrese Maxey puts up 25.9 points, 3.7 rebounds and 6.2 assists per contest, shooting 45.0% from the field and 37.3% from beyond the arc with 3.0 made 3-pointers per game (ninth in NBA).
- Maxey’s 25.9 points per game average is 1.4 points higher than Wednesday’s over/under.
- Maxey has gone up against a points prop bet in 76 games this season, and he’s exceeded the total 35 times.
- In 2023-24, the Heat are fifth-worst in the league offensively (110.1 points scored per game) but third-best defensively (108.4 points allowed).
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All stats in this article refer to the 2023-24 regular season.
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