The Oklahoma City Thunder (55-25) play the Milwaukee Bucks (49-31) on April 12, 2024 at Paycom Center. The Thunder are strongly favored, by 14 points, in a matchup featuring one of the top defensive teams in the NBA (the Thunder) against one of the best offensive squads (the Bucks). The matchup has an over/under of 223.5.
Dive into the best bets available (based on our computer predictions) in Friday’s game, before you place an informed wager on the contest.
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Spread: Bucks (+14) to Cover
- The Thunder are favored by both DraftKings and the model, but the model has them winning by significantly less (14 to 7.4 points). Take the Bucks and the points.
- Milwaukee is 35-44-1 against the spread this year.
- Oklahoma City is 44-35-1 ATS this season.
- The Thunder have been favored by 14 points or more six times this season, and covered the spread in five of those matchups.
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Total: Over 223.5
- The DraftKings point total for this matchup is more than two possessions lower (10.9 points) than the model projection. Put your money on the over.
- Oklahoma City’s games have had more than 223.5 points scored on 53 occasions this year.
- There have been 54 Milwaukee’s games this year with more than 223.5 points scored.
- A total of 42 out of the Thunder’s 80 games this season have hit the over.
- So far this year, 40 out of the Bucks’ 80 games with an over/under have hit the over.
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Moneyline Winner: Thunder (-900)
- Prediction: Thunder 121, Bucks 113
- This season, Oklahoma City has been favored 59 times and won 45, or 76.3%, of those games.
- Milwaukee has been chosen as underdogs in 13 games this year and has walked away with the win four times (30.8%) in those games.
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Jalen Williams Points Prop: Over 18.5
- Jalen Williams puts up 19.3 points, 4.1 boards and 4.6 assists per game. At the other end, he averages 1.1 steals and 0.6 blocks.
- Williams is averaging 19.3 points during the 2023-24 season, 0.8 higher than Friday’s prop total.
- He is 37-for-71 at scoring more than his points prop this season.
- The Bucks are the fourth-best squad in the NBA in points scored (119.5 per game) and 21st in points allowed (116.3).
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Brook Lopez Rebounds Prop: Over 4.5
- The Bucks are receiving 12.5 points, 5.2 rebounds and 1.6 assists per game from Brook Lopez this year.
- He averages 0.7 more rebounds than his prop bet Friday of 4.5.
- Sportsbooks have set a rebound total for him 80 times this season, and he has hit the over in 36 of those games.
- The Thunder have struggled to collect rebounds this season, ranking fourth-worst in the league with 41.9 rebounds per game. They rank 23rd by allowing 44.8 rebounds per contest.
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