The Dallas Mavericks (49-30) are favored by 2.5 points, over the Miami Heat (44-35) on April 10, 2024 at FTX Arena. It’s a matchup featuring one of the highest-scoring squads in the NBA versus one of the best defensively. The Mavericks are fifth in points scored per game (118.7), and the Heat are fourth in points allowed (108.5). The matchup’s over/under is set at 216.
Keep reading to dig into the best bets you can place on Wednesday’s game, based on our computer predictions.
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Spread: Heat (+2.5) to Cover
- While DraftKings has the Mavericks winning by 2.5, the model has the Heat taking home the victory, though the margin is fairly small (2.6 points). Lean toward taking the Heat.
- Miami is 39-37-3 against the spread this year.
- The Heat are 15-14 ATS this season when playing as at least 2.5-point underdogs.
- Dallas has a 47-32-0 record against the spread this season.
- The Mavericks have been favored by 2.5 points or more 41 times this season, and covered the spread in 27 of those matchups.
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Total: Over 216
- The DraftKings point total for this game is more than two possessions lower (10.6 points) than the model projection. Put your money on the over.
- In 67 games this season, Dallas and its opponent have combined to score more than 216 points.
- Miami’s games have gone over 216 points on 45 occasions this year.
- In the Mavericks’ 79 games this season, the combined scoring has gone over the point total 36 times.
- The Heat and their opponents have combined to hit the over 33 out of 79 times this year.
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Moneyline Winner: Heat (+114)
- Prediction: Heat 114, Mavericks 113
- Dallas has won 36, or 76.6%, of the 47 games it has played as the favorite this season.
- Miami has been chosen as underdogs in 34 games this year and has walked away with the win 11 times (32.4%) in those games.
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Luka Doncic Points Prop: Under 30.5
- Luka Doncic posts 33.9 points, 9.2 rebounds and 9.8 assists per contest, shooting 48.8% from the floor and 38.4% from beyond the arc with 4.1 made 3-pointers per contest (second in NBA).
- Doncic’s 33.9 points per game average is 3.4 points more than Wednesday’s over/under.
- In 73 games this season with a points prop total, Doncic has hit the over 39 times.
- The Heat are the fourth-worst team in the league in points scored (110.1 per game) but fourth-best in points conceded (108.5).
Check out all available player props for Luka Doncic and other Mavericks players in this matchup and sign up to place your bets with DraftKings Sportsbook.
Bam Adebayo Rebounds Prop: Over 10.5
- On a per-game basis, Bam Adebayo gets the Heat 19.5 points, 10.6 rebounds and 4.0 assists. He also averages 1.1 steals and 1.0 block.
- He averages 0.1 more rebounds than his over/under on Wednesday (which is 10.5).
- This will be his 71st game with a rebound prop this season, and so far he has gone over on 34 occasions.
- With 42.9 boards per game, the Mavericks rank 19th in the NBA. They allow 45.0 rebounds per contest, which ranks 25th in the league.
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