The Miami Heat (43-35) are favored (four points) over the Atlanta Hawks (36-42) on April 9, 2024 at State Farm Arena. It’s a matchup pitting one of the strongest squads in the league defensively versus one of the top offensive teams. The Heat are fourth in points conceded per game (108.5), and Atlanta is fifth in points scored (118.7). The matchup’s point total is set at 219.5.
Our computer predictions in this article will help you decide what are the best bets available for Tuesday’s game.
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Spread: Hawks (+4) to Cover
- The Heat are favored by both DraftKings and the model, but the model has them winning by significantly less (4 to 0.7 points). Take the Hawks and the points.
- Atlanta has a 28-50-0 record against the spread this year.
- The Hawks have covered the spread six times this year (6-14 ATS) when playing as at least 4-point underdogs.
- Miami’s ATS record is 38-37-3 this season.
- When playing as at least 4-point favorites this season, the Heat have an ATS record of 8-12-2.
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Total: Over 219.5
- In this matchup, the model projects a total (228.7 points) much higher than the DraftKings over/under (219.5 points). Bet on the over.
- A total of 35 times so far this year, Miami and its opponent have combined for more than 219.5 points.
- So far this year, 63 Atlanta’s games have featured more than 219.5 points scored.
- So far this season, 32 out of the Heat’s 78 games have hit the over.
- The Hawks and their opponents have combined to hit the over 42 out of 78 times this year.
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Moneyline Winner: Heat (-166)
- Prediction: Heat 115, Hawks 114
- Miami has been the favorite in 44 games this season and won 32 (72.7%) of those contests.
- Atlanta has won in 12, or 32.4%, of the 37 contests it has been named as the odds-on underdog this year.
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Terry Rozier Points Prop: Over 15.5
- Terry Rozier averages 19.8 points, 5.6 assists and 4.0 rebounds per game.
- The 15.5-point total set for Rozier on Tuesday is 4.3 less than his season scoring average.
- Rozier has hit the points prop over at a 30-for-63 clip this season.
- Offensively, the Hawks are the fifth-best team in the league (118.7 points per game). However defensively they are third-worst (120.3 points conceded per game).
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Bogdan Bogdanovic Points Prop: Under 17.5
- Bogdan Bogdanovic is putting up 16.9 points, 3.5 rebounds and 3.1 assists per game. He’s sinking 43.0% of his shots from the field and 37.7% from 3-point range, with 3.1 triples per contest (seventh in league).
- Bogdanovic has scored 16.9 points per game during the 2023-24 season, 0.6 points less than Tuesday’s points prop total.
- He has hit the over 32 times on a points prop this season (in 65 tries).
- Because of the Heat’s offensive struggles this season, ranking fourth-worst in the NBA with 110.0 points per game, they’ve had to lean on their defense, which ranks fourth-best in the league by allowing 108.5 points per game.
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