In a contest featuring a pair of the best offensive squads in the league, the Milwaukee Bucks (47-31) are three-point favorites for their matchup with the Boston Celtics (62-16) at Fiserv Forum on April 9, 2024. The matchup has an over/under of 229.5 points.
Our computer predictions in this article will help you decide what are the best bets available for Tuesday’s game.
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Spread: Celtics (+3) to Cover
- The model line is much more favorable to the Celtics compared to the DraftKings line, a 10.6 point difference, and has them favored to win Tuesday’s game outright. Put your money on the Celtics.
- Boston has gone 41-34-3 ATS this year.
- The Celtics have won their only game this year when playing as at least 3-point underdogs.
- Milwaukee’s ATS record is 33-44-1 this season.
- When playing as at least 3-point favorites this season, the Bucks have an ATS record of 22-34-1.
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Total: Over 229.5
- In this matchup, the model projects a total (233.3 points) slightly higher than the DraftKings over/under (229.5 points).
- A total of 51 times so far this year, Milwaukee and its opponent have combined for more than 229.5 points.
- Boston’s games have finished with over 229.5 points scored 40 times this season.
- In the Bucks’ 78 games this season, the combined scoring has gone over the point total 39 times.
- So far this year, 40 out of the Celtics’ 78 games with an over/under have hit the over.
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Moneyline Winner: Celtics (+124)
- Prediction: Celtics 120, Bucks 113
- This season, Milwaukee has been favored 66 times and won 44, or 66.7%, of those games.
- Boston has split the two games it has played as underdogs this season.
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Giannis Antetokounmpo Points Prop: Under 27.5
- Giannis Antetokounmpo averages 30.7 points, 11.6 rebounds and 6.5 assists per contest, shooting 61.1% from the floor (sixth in NBA).
- The 27.5-point total set for Antetokounmpo on Tuesday is 3.2 fewer points than his season scoring average.
- So far this season, Antetokounmpo is 35-for-79 at scoring more than the total set for his points prop.
- Offensively, the Celtics are the second-best squad in the NBA (120.8 points per game). Defensively, they are fifth-best (109.2 points allowed per game).
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Jayson Tatum Points Prop: Over 24.5
- Jayson Tatum is putting up 27.0 points, 8.2 rebounds and 4.9 assists per game. He’s also sinking 47.2% of his shots from the field and 37.8% from beyond the arc, with 3.1 triples per game (seventh in league).
- The 27.0 points Tatum scores per game are 2.5 more than his over/under on Tuesday.
- Tatum has exceeded his points prop on 33 occasions this season (in 76 games with such a prop).
- The Bucks are surrendering 116.8 points per game this season (22nd-ranked in NBA), but they’ve really shined offensively, putting up 119.7 points per game (fourth-best).
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