In a matchup featuring one of the sputtering squads in the NBA, the Utah Jazz (29-49) play the Denver Nuggets (54-24) at Vivint Smart Home Arena on April 9, 2024. The Jazz have lost 12 in a row and are 0-10 in their past 10 games. They enter this matchup as underdogs by 14.5 points. The matchup has an over/under set at 225 points.
Our computer predictions for Tuesday’s game will help you make an informed wager by picking the best bets available.
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Spread: Jazz (+14.5) to Cover
- The Nuggets are favored by both DraftKings and the model, but the model has them winning by significantly less (14.5 to 9.2 points). Take the Jazz and the points.
- Utah has a 39-39-0 record against the spread this year.
- The Jazz have covered the spread once this year (1-1 ATS) when playing as at least 14.5-point underdogs.
- Denver is 35-41-2 ATS this season.
- When playing as at least 14.5-point favorites this season, the Nuggets have an ATS record of 3-4.
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Total: Over 225
- The model predicts a total 5.5 points higher than the one set by DraftKings for this game.
- Denver’s games have finished with more than 225 points 36 times so far this year.
- Utah’s games have gone over 225 points on 59 occasions this season.
- In the Nuggets’ 78 games this season, the combined scoring has gone over the point total 32 times.
- In the Jazz’s 78 chances this year, the combined scoring has gone over the point total 43 times.
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Moneyline Winner: Nuggets (-1350)
- Prediction: Nuggets 120, Jazz 111
- This season, Denver has been favored 68 times and won 50, or 73.5%, of those games.
- Utah has won in 16, or 27.1%, of the 59 contests it has been named as the odds-on underdog this year.
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Nikola Jokic Points Prop: Over 28.5
- Nikola Jokic posts 26.4 points, 12.4 rebounds and 9.0 assists per game, shooting 57.8% from the floor and 34.7% from beyond the arc with 1.0 made treys per contest.
- The 28.5-point total set for Jokic on Tuesday is 2.1 more points than his per-game scoring average.
- So far this season, Jokic is 38-for-78 at going over the total set for his points prop.
- In 2023-24, the Jazz are 12th in the NBA on offense (115.9 points scored per game) and second-worst defensively (120.8 points allowed).
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Collin Sexton Points Prop: Under 20.5
- Collin Sexton delivers 18.7 points, 2.6 rebounds and 4.9 assists per game for the Jazz.
- Tuesday’s over/under for Sexton is 20.5 points, 1.8 more than his season average.
- This season Sexton is 39-for-71 at hitting the over on the over/under set for him in terms of points.
- The Nuggets are putting up 114.7 points per game (14th-ranked in NBA) this season, while giving up 109.7 points per contest (sixth-ranked).
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