In a contest between one of the top shooting squads in the NBA versus one of the best defending against the 3-pointer, the Boston Celtics (61-16) are favorites, by 16.5 points, against the Portland Trail Blazers (21-56) at TD Garden on April 7, 2024. The Celtics are first in the league in triples per game (16.5), while the Trail Blazers are fifth in 3’s conceded (11.6). The point total in the matchup is 216.5.
Check out below to dig into the best bets you can make on Sunday’s game, based on our computer predictions.
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Spread: Celtics (-16.5) to Cover
- The DraftKings line for this game has the Celtics favored by 16.5, while the model predicts they’ll win by considerably more (25.5 points). Put your money on the Celtics.
- Boston is 40-34-3 against the spread this season.
- The Celtics have been favored by 16.5 points or more four times this season, and covered the spread in one of those contests.
- Portland is 37-39-1 ATS this season.
- The Trail Blazers have covered the spread when playing as at least 16.5-point underdogs in their only opportunity this season.
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Total: Over 216.5
- The DraftKings point total for this matchup is more than two possessions lower (9.7 points) than the model projection. Put your money on the over.
- A total of 58 times so far this year, Boston and its opponent have combined to score more than 216.5 points.
- So far this year, 47 Portland’s games have featured more than 216.5 points scored.
- The Celtics and their opponents have combined to go over the point total 39 out of 77 times this season.
- The Trail Blazers and their opponents have combined to go over the point total 38 out of 77 times this year.
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Moneyline Winner: Celtics (-1600)
- Prediction: Celtics 126, Trail Blazers 100
- Boston has entered the game as favorites 75 times this season and won 60, or 80%, of those games.
- Portland has been an underdog in 71 games this season and has come away with the win 20 times (28.2%) in those contests.
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Deandre Ayton Points Prop: Under 21.5
- Deandre Ayton is averaging 16.4 points, 11.2 rebounds and 1.7 assists per contest. He’s also draining 57.6% of his shots from the floor.
- Ayton’s 16.4 points per game are 5.1 less than Sunday’s over/under.
- Ayton has exceeded his points prop on 26 occasions this season (in 52 games with such a prop).
- When it comes to points, the Celtics are thriving at both ends of the court, as they rank second-best in the league in points scored (120.8 per game) and fifth-best in points allowed (109.2 per contest).
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