In a game pitting one of the best offensive squads in the league against one of the strongest squads defensively, the Indiana Pacers (44-34) face the Miami Heat (43-34) at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on April 7, 2024. The Pacers are first in points per game (122.8), and the Heat are third in points conceded (108.4). Indiana is a favorite, by 1.5 points. The matchup’s over/under is set at 227.5.
Check out below to find the best bets you can place on Sunday’s game, based on our computer predictions.
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Spread: Pacers (-1.5) to Cover
- The DraftKings line for this game has the Pacers favored by 1.5, while the model predicts they’ll win by considerably more (5.0 points). Put your money on the Pacers.
- Indiana has a 42-33-3 record against the spread this season.
- The Pacers have an ATS record of 18-19-1 when playing as at least 1.5-point favorites this season.
- Miami is 37-37-3 against the spread this year.
- The Heat have been an underdog by 1.5 points or more 32 times this season, and covered the spread in 16 of those games.
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Total: Over 227.5
- The DraftKings point total for this matchup is just 3.1 points lower than the model projection.
- Indiana and its opponent have broken the 227.5-point mark 55 times this year.
- There have been 20 Miami’s games this season with more than 227.5 points scored.
- A total of 38 out of the Pacers’ 78 games this season have hit the over.
- Heat games have gone over the point total 31 out of 77 times this year.
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Moneyline Winner: Pacers (-122)
- Prediction: Pacers 118, Heat 113
- Indiana has entered the game as favorites 41 times this season and won 24, or 58.5%, of those games.
- Miami has won in 11, or 33.3%, of the 33 contests it has been named as the odds-on underdog this year.
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Terry Rozier Points Prop: Over 15.5
- The Heat are receiving 20.0 points, 4.1 rebounds and 5.6 assists per game from Terry Rozier this season.
- Rozier has averaged 20.0 points per game during the 2023-24 season, 4.5 points higher than Sunday’s over/under.
- So far this season, Rozier is 30-for-62 at hitting the over on the total set for his points prop.
- Because of the Pacers’ defensive struggles this year, ranking fourth-worst in the NBA with 120.2 points allowed per game, they’ve been forced to count on their offense, which ranks best in the league tallying 122.8 points per game.
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