The Dallas Mavericks (45-30) face the Atlanta Hawks (36-40) on April 4, 2024 at American Airlines Center. The Mavericks are favorites by 12 points as they enter the matchup 8-2 in their last 10 games. The point total for the matchup is set at 227.5.
Our computer predictions below will help you decide what are the best bets available for Thursday’s game.
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Spread: Hawks (+12) to Cover
- The Mavericks are favored by both DraftKings and the model, but the model has them winning by significantly less (12 to 8.6 points). Take the Hawks and the points.
- Atlanta has a 28-48-0 record against the spread this season.
- The Hawks have covered the spread when playing as at least 12-point underdogs in two of two games this season.
- Dallas is 43-32-0 ATS this season.
- The Mavericks have been favored by 12 points or more two times this season, and covered the spread in one of those matchups.
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Total: Over 227.5
- The DraftKings point total for this game is more than two possessions lower (9.4 points) than the model projection. Put your money on the over.
- Dallas’ games have had more than 227.5 points scored on 48 occasions this year.
- Atlanta’s games have gone over 227.5 points on 51 occasions this year.
- In the Mavericks’ 75 games this season, the combined scoring has gone over the point total 34 times.
- A total of 41 Hawks games this year have gone over the point total.
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Moneyline Winner: Mavericks (-700)
- Prediction: Mavericks 123, Hawks 114
- Dallas has won 33, or 75%, of the 44 games it has played as the favorite this season.
- Atlanta has come away with 12 wins in the 35 contests it has been listed as the underdog this season.
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Kyrie Irving Points Prop: Over 25.5
- Kyrie Irving puts up 25.4 points, 5.2 assists and 4.9 boards per contest.
- Irving is scoring 25.4 points per game this season, 0.1 less than his over/under on Thursday.
- So far this season, Irving is 27-for-58 at scoring more than the total set for his points prop.
- On offense, the Hawks are the fifth-best team in the league (119.1 points per game). But on defense they are fourth-worst (120.2 points allowed per game).
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Bogdan Bogdanovic Rebounds Prop: Over 3.5
- Bogdan Bogdanovic is putting up 16.9 points, 3.5 rebounds and 3.2 assists per contest. He’s draining 42.9% of his shots from the floor and 37.5% from 3-point range, with 3.1 triples per game (eighth in league).
- He has averaged the same number of rebounds as his prop bet total in Thursday’s game (3.5).
- He has grabbed more rebounds than the total set for him by oddsmakers 32 times this season in his 62 games with a prop.
- This year, the Mavericks are pulling down 42.6 rebounds per game (20th-ranked in NBA) and ceding 45.1 rebounds per contest (25th-ranked).
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