In a matchup between two of the top defensive teams in the league, the Miami Heat (41-33) are three-point favorites against the New York Knicks (44-30) at FTX Arena on April 2, 2024. The Heat are fourth in points conceded per game (108.5), and the Knicks are second (107.9). The matchup’s over/under is set at 206.
Our computer predictions below will help you pick what are the best bets available for Tuesday’s game.
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Spread: Knicks (+3) to Cover
- The model line is much more favorable to the Knicks compared to the DraftKings line, a 3.9 point difference, and has them favored to win Tuesday’s game outright. Put your money on the Knicks.
- New York has a 39-32-3 record against the spread this season.
- The Knicks have an ATS record of 7-13-2 when playing as at least 3-point underdogs this year.
- Miami’s ATS record is 35-36-3 this season.
- When playing as at least 3-point favorites this season, the Heat have an ATS record of 12-15-2.
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Total: Over 206
- The DraftKings point total for this matchup is more than two possessions lower (13.5 points) than the model projection. Put your money on the over.
- Miami’s games have had more than 206 points scored on 54 occasions this year.
- So far this year, 58 New York’s games have featured more than 206 points scored.
- Heat games have hit the over 28 out of 74 times this season.
- The Knicks and their opponents have combined to hit the over 30 out of 74 times this year.
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Moneyline Winner: Knicks (+124)
- Prediction: Knicks 110, Heat 109
- Miami has won 30, or 73.2%, of the 41 games it has played as the favorite this season.
- New York has come away with 12 wins in the 32 contests it has been listed as the underdog this season.
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Jaime Jaquez Jr. Points Prop: Under 8.5
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. posts 12.2 points, 2.6 assists and 3.9 boards per contest.
- Jaquez Jr.’s 12.2 points per game are 3.7 points more than Tuesday’s over/under.
- He has exceeded his points prop on 19 occasions this season (in 46 games with such a prop).
- The Knicks are 20th in the league in points scored (112.6 per game) and second-best in points allowed (107.9).
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Jalen Brunson Points Prop: Under 27.5
- Jalen Brunson is putting up 27.9 points, 3.6 rebounds and 6.5 assists per contest. He’s also draining 47.8% of his shots from the field and 40.0% from beyond the arc, with 2.7 triples per contest.
- The 27.5-point over/under set for Brunson on Tuesday is 0.4 lower than his scoring average of 27.9.
- This season Brunson is 34-for-75 at hitting the over on the over/under set for him in terms of points.
- Because of the Heat’s offensive struggles this year, ranking fourth-worst in the NBA with 109.9 points per game, they’ve been forced to count on their defense, which ranks fourth-best in the league by surrendering 108.5 points per game.
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