In a matchup featuring a pair of the best marksmen in the league, Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks (45-29) will face Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors (40-34) on April 2, 2024 at Chase Center. Dončić drains 4.0 treys per contest (second in league), and Curry makes 4.8 (first). The Mavericks are one-point favorites for the contest. The matchup has a point total of 232.
Our computer predictions for Tuesday’s game will help you place an informed wager by picking the best bets available.
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Spread: Warriors (+1) to Cover
- The data strongly suggests betting on the Warriors in this one. The model favors them while DraftKings has the Mavericks favored and the difference between the two is 4.2 points.
- Golden State is 39-33-2 ATS this year.
- When playing as at least 1-point underdogs this year, the Warriors have an ATS record of 15-9-2.
- Dallas has a 43-31-0 record against the spread this season.
- The Mavericks have an ATS record of 29-16 when playing as at least 1-point favorites this season.
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Total: Over 232
- In this matchup, the model projects a total (234.4 points) a little higher than the DraftKings over/under (232 points).
- A total of 43 times so far this year, Dallas and its opponent have combined to score more than 232 points.
- Golden State’s games have had over 232 points 40 times this season.
- A total of 34 out of the Mavericks’ 74 games this season have hit the over.
- In the Warriors’ 74 chances this year, the combined scoring has gone over the point total 37 times.
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Moneyline Winner: Warriors (-108)
- Prediction: Warriors 119, Mavericks 116
- This season, Dallas has been favored 44 times and won 33, or 75%, of those games.
- Golden State has come away with eight wins in the 26 contests it has been listed as the underdog this season.
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Luka Doncic Rebounds Prop: Under 9.5
- Doncic averages 34.0 points, 9.8 assists and 9.1 boards per contest.
- His per-game rebound average — 9.1 — is 0.4 fewer than his prop bet over/under in Tuesday’s game (9.5).
- He has recorded more rebounds than his listed total in 33 of his 69 games with a prop this season.
- In 2023-24, the Warriors are best in the league in rebounds (46.8 per game) and 13th in rebounds allowed (43.3).
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Stephen Curry Rebounds Prop: Over 3.5
- On a per-game basis, Curry gets the Warriors 26.6 points, 4.3 rebounds and 5.0 assists. He also averages 0.7 steals and 0.3 blocked shots.
- He has grabbed 4.3 boards per game, 0.8 more than his over/under for Tuesday’s game.
- He has collected more boards than the over/under set for him by oddsmakers 33 times this season in 72 games with that prop available.
- With 42.6 rebounds per game, the Mavericks are 20th in the NBA. They give up 45.0 rebounds per contest, which ranks 25th in the league.
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