The Denver Nuggets (51-23) host the Cleveland Cavaliers (45-29) at Ball Arena, starting at 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, March 31, 2024. The Cavaliers are 5-point underdogs in the game. The matchup has an over/under of 215.5 points.
Our computer predictions below will help you decide what are the best bets available for Sunday’s game.
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Spread: Nuggets (-5) to Cover
- The line for this game set by DraftKings and the model’s prediction are essentially the same (within 0.5 points of each other).
- Denver’s ATS record is 33-39-2 this season.
- The Nuggets have been favored by 5 points or more 43 times this season, and covered the spread in 18 of those matchups.
- Cleveland has a 35-37-2 record against the spread this season.
- The Cavaliers have been an underdog by 5 points or more 14 times this year, and covered the spread in 10 of those games.
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Total: Over 215.5
- In this game, the model projects a total (223.2 points) much higher than the DraftKings over/under (215.5 points). Bet on the over.
- Denver and its opponent have broken the 215.5-point mark 50 times this season.
- So far this season, 43 Cleveland’s games have featured over 215.5 points scored.
- So far this season, 30 out of the Nuggets’ 74 games have hit the over.
- In the Cavaliers’ 74 chances this season, the combined scoring has gone over the point total 35 times.
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Moneyline Winner: Nuggets (-192)
- Prediction: Nuggets 114, Cavaliers 109
- Denver has won 47, or 73.4%, of the 64 games it has played as the favorite this season.
- Cleveland has been an underdog in 25 games this season and has come away with the win 11 times (44%) in those contests.
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Michael Porter Jr. Points Prop: Under 15.5
- Michael Porter Jr. puts up 16.9 points, 7.0 rebounds and 1.5 assists per contest, shooting 49.2% from the floor and 40.3% from downtown with 2.8 made treys per contest.
- The 16.9 points Porter scores per game are 1.4 more than his over/under on Sunday (15.5).
- So far this season, Porter is 36-for-71 at hitting the over on the total set for his points prop.
- In 2023-24, the Cavaliers are 19th in the league on offense (112.7 points scored per game) and fifth-best on defense (109.4 points allowed).
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Donovan Mitchell Points Prop: Under 20.5
- The Cavaliers are getting 27.1 points, 5.3 rebounds and 6.1 assists per game from Donovan Mitchell this year.
- Mitchell’s 27.1 points per game average is 6.6 points higher than Sunday’s over/under.
- He has gone up against a points prop bet in 60 games this season, and he’s gone over 22 times.
- The Nuggets are 14th in the NBA with 114.4 points per game this year. At the other end, they rank seventh with 109.9 points allowed per game.
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