In a game between two of the best squads in the NBA defending against the 3-pointer, the Denver Nuggets (51-22) are favored by 6.5 points against the Minnesota Timberwolves (50-22) at Ball Arena on March 29, 2024. The Nuggets give up just 11.3 triples per game (second in league), and the Timberwolves concede 11.3 (second). The matchup has an over/under set at 212.5 points.
If you are looking to make an informed wager on Friday’s game, dig into the best bets available in this matchup, in this article (according to our computer predictions).
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Spread: Timberwolves (+6.5) to Cover
- The model favors the Nuggets by 1.0 point, a much smaller margin than the 6.5-point spread set by DraftKings. Take the Timberwolves to cover.
- Minnesota is 37-33-2 against the spread this season.
- The Timberwolves have been an underdog by 6.5 points or more two times this season, and covered the spread both times.
- So far this season, Denver has compiled a 33-38-2 record against the spread.
- The Nuggets have been favored by 6.5 points or more 34 times this season, and covered the spread in 16 of those matchups.
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Total: Over 212.5
- In this matchup, the model projects a total (221.9 points) substantially higher than the DraftKings over/under (212.5 points). Bet on the over.
- Denver’s games have finished with more than 212.5 points 55 times so far this year.
- Minnesota’s games have gone over 212.5 points on 51 occasions this season.
- In the Nuggets’ 73 games this season, the combined scoring has gone over the point total 30 times.
- The Timberwolves and their opponents have combined to hit the over 35 out of 72 times this season.
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Moneyline Winner: Nuggets (-258)
- Prediction: Nuggets 111, Timberwolves 110
- Denver has entered the game as favorites 63 times this season and won 47, or 74.6%, of those games.
- Minnesota has come away with eight wins in the 17 contests it has been listed as the underdog this season.
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Michael Porter Jr. Points Prop: Under 17.5
- Michael Porter Jr. puts up 16.9 points, 7.0 boards and 1.5 assists per game. Defensively, he averages 0.5 steals and 0.7 blocks.
- Porter’s 16.9-point scoring average is 0.6 less than Friday’s over/under.
- So far this season, Porter is 36-for-69 at going over the total set for his points prop.
- In 2023-24, the Timberwolves are 18th in the NBA offensively (113.1 points scored per game) and best on defense (106.3 points allowed).
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Rudy Gobert Points Prop: Under 12.5
- Rudy Gobert is putting up 13.6 points, 12.9 rebounds and 1.3 assists per game. He’s sinking 65.0% of his shots from the floor (second in NBA).
- Gobert has averaged 13.6 points per game during the 2023-24 season, 1.1 points higher than Friday’s over/under.
- He is 33-for-72 at hitting the over on his points prop total this season.
- So far this season, the Nuggets are scoring 114.6 points per game (14th-ranked in NBA) and ceding 109.9 points per contest (seventh-ranked).
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