The Miami Heat (38-32) play the Cleveland Cavaliers (43-27) on March 24, 2024 at FTX Arena. The Heat are favored, by 3.5 points, in a matchup featuring two of the top defensive teams in the league — the Heat are fourth (109.2 points allowed per game), and the Cavaliers are fifth (109.3). The over/under in the matchup is 202.
Before you place an informed wager on the contest, take a look at the best bets available in Sunday’s game according to our computer predictions.
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Spread: Cavaliers (+3.5) to Cover
- The data strongly suggests betting on the Cavaliers in this one. The model favors them while DraftKings has the Heat favored and the difference between the two is 4.6 points.
- Cleveland is 34-34-2 ATS this year.
- When playing as at least 3.5-point underdogs this season, the Cavaliers have an ATS record of 12-6.
- Miami is 33-35-2 against the spread this season.
- The Heat have been favored by 3.5 points or more 23 times this season, and covered the spread in nine of those games.
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Total: Over 202
- The model projects a total (220.5 points) much higher than the one set by DraftKings for this game (202 points). Take the over.
- In 56 games this year, Miami and its opponent have combined to score more than 202 points.
- Cleveland’s games have had over 202 points 63 times this season.
- So far this season, 25 out of the Heat’s 70 games have gone over the point total.
- The Cavaliers and their opponents have combined to hit the over 31 out of 70 times this season.
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Moneyline Winner: Cavaliers (+136)
- Prediction: Cavaliers 111, Heat 110
- Miami has entered the game as favorites 38 times this season and won 27, or 71.1%, of those games.
- Cleveland has been chosen as underdogs in 24 games this year and has walked away with the win 11 times (45.8%) in those games.
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Bam Adebayo Points Prop: Under 17.5
- Bam Adebayo puts up 19.7 points, 10.6 boards and 3.9 assists per game, shooting 51.7% from the field.
- Sunday’s points prop bet for Adebayo is 17.5 points. That is 2.2 fewer than his season average of 19.7.
- Adebayo is 27-for-62 at going over his points prop total this season.
- The Cavaliers are 18th in the NBA in points scored (113.1 per game) and fifth-best in points allowed (109.3).
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