The Minnesota Timberwolves (47-22) are 7.5-point favorites over the Cleveland Cavaliers (43-26) on March 22, 2024 at Target Center. It’s a contest featuring two of the strongest defensive teams in the league — the Timberwolves are first in points allowed per game (106.7) and the Cavaliers are fifth (109.4). The matchup’s over/under is 207.
If you are looking to make an informed wager on Friday’s game, see the best bets available in this matchup, below (based on our computer predictions).
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Spread: Cavaliers (+7.5) to Cover
- The model and DraftKings both have the Timberwolves taking home the victory, but the model has them winning by slightly less (6.9 points). Lean towards taking the Cavaliers.
- Cleveland is 34-33-2 against the spread this season.
- When playing as at least 7.5-point underdogs this year, the Cavaliers have an ATS record of 3-1.
- Minnesota is 35-32-2 against the spread this season.
- The Timberwolves have covered the spread 13 times this season (13-13 ATS) when playing as at least 7.5-point favorites.
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Total: Over 207
- The model predicts a total (221.4 points) much higher than the one set by DraftKings for this game (207 points). Take the over.
- Minnesota’s games have finished with more than 207 points 57 times so far this season.
- Cleveland’s games have gone over 207 points on 59 occasions this season.
- A total of 34 out of the Timberwolves’ 69 games this season have gone over the point total.
- In the Cavaliers’ 69 chances this season, the combined scoring has gone over the point total 31 times.
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Moneyline Winner: Timberwolves (-290)
- Prediction: Timberwolves 114, Cavaliers 107
- Minnesota has entered the game as favorites 51 times this season and won 38, or 74.5%, of those games.
- Cleveland has come away with 11 wins in the 23 contests it has been listed as the underdog this season.
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Mike Conley Points Prop: Under 11.5
- Mike Conley puts up 10.8 points, 3.0 rebounds and 6.0 assists per contest. Defensively, he averages 1.0 steal and 0.2 blocks.
- Conley is averaging 10.8 points in the 2023-24 season, 0.7 lower than Friday’s over/under.
- He is 27-for-66 at scoring more than his points prop this season.
- In 2023-24, the Cavaliers are 18th in the NBA offensively (113.4 points scored per game) and fifth-best defensively (109.4 points allowed).
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Darius Garland Points Prop: Under 19.5
- Darius Garland is averaging 18.7 points, 2.5 rebounds and 6.4 assists per game. He is draining 45.2% of his shots from the field and 37.8% from beyond the arc, with 2.4 treys per game.
- Friday’s points prop for Garland is 19.5. That’s 0.8 more than his season average.
- This season, Garland has scored beyond the points prop number in 16 of 44 games with a set total.
- The Timberwolves are posting 113.3 points per game this year (19th-ranked in NBA), but they’ve really provided a lift on defense, allowing just 106.7 points per game (best).
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