In a game featuring one of the sharpest shooting teams in the NBA versus one of the best defending against the 3-pointer, the Golden State Warriors (36-32) are favorites, by five points, against the Indiana Pacers (39-31) at Chase Center on March 22, 2024. The Warriors are second in the league in treys per game (14.9), while the Pacers are first in 3’s conceded (10.9). The matchup has an over/under set at 239.5 points.
Our computer predictions for Friday’s game can help you place an informed wager by picking the best bets available.
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Spread: Pacers (+5) to Cover
- The model favors the Warriors by 3.9 points, just 1.1 less than the 5-point spread set by DraftKings.
- Indiana has gone 37-30-3 ATS this year.
- The Pacers have covered the spread 10 times this year (10-7-2 ATS) when playing as at least 5-point underdogs.
- Golden State has a 36-30-2 record against the spread this season.
- The Warriors have an ATS record of 11-12 when playing as at least 5-point favorites this season.
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Total: Under 239.5
- The model’s predicted total (239.3 points) and the DraftKings set total (239.5 points) are virtually the same for this contest.
- Golden State and its opponent have broken the 239.5-point mark 23 times this year.
- Indiana’s games have finished with over 239.5 points scored 38 times this season.
- The Warriors and their opponents have combined to hit the over 35 out of 68 times this season.
- The Pacers and their opponents have combined to go over the point total 34 out of 70 times this season.
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Moneyline Winner: Warriors (-192)
- Prediction: Warriors 122, Pacers 118
- Golden State has been the favorite in 44 games this season and won 29 (65.9%) of those contests.
- Indiana has come away with 18 wins in the 34 contests it has been listed as the underdog this season.
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Klay Thompson Points Prop: Over 16.5
- Klay Thompson posts 17.3 points, 3.3 rebounds and 2.2 assists per contest, shooting 42.3% from the floor and 38.6% from downtown with 3.4 made treys per contest (third in NBA).
- The 16.5-point over/under set for Thompson on Friday is 0.8 lower than his scoring average of 17.3.
- He is 31-for-69 at hitting the over on his points prop this season.
- The Pacers are the best team in the NBA in points scored (122.8 per game) but third-worst in points conceded (120.7).
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Pascal Siakam Points Prop: Over 21.5
- Pascal Siakam gets the Pacers 22.2 points, 6.3 rebounds and 4.8 assists per contest while averaging 0.8 steals and 0.3 blocked shots.
- Friday’s points prop for Siakam is 21.5. That’s 0.7 less than his season average.
- Siakam has hit the points prop over at a 30-for-71 clip this season.
- With 118.6 points per game on offense, the Warriors are sixth in the NBA. At the other end of the court, they cede 116.8 points per contest, which ranks 20th in the league.
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