The Cleveland Cavaliers (43-25) host the Miami Heat (37-31) at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, tipping off at 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, March 20, 2024. The Heat are 1.5-point underdogs in the game. The matchup has a point total of 206.5.
Check out below to find the best bets you can make on Wednesday’s game, based on our computer predictions.
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Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5) to Cover
- The Cavaliers are the bet in this matchup. They’re favored by 5.8 more points in the model than DraftKings (7.3 to 1.5).
- Cleveland has gone 34-32-2 ATS this season.
- The Cavaliers have covered the spread 19 times this season (19-22-2 ATS) when playing as at least 1.5-point favorites.
- So far this year, Miami has put together a 32-34-2 record against the spread.
- When playing as at least 1.5-point underdogs this year, the Heat have an ATS record of 15-15.
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Total: Over 206.5
- In this matchup, the model projects a total (221.0 points) significantly higher than the DraftKings over/under (206.5 points). Bet on the over.
- Cleveland’s games have finished with more than 206.5 points 58 times so far this season.
- Miami’s games have finished with over 206.5 points scored 50 times this season.
- So far this season, 30 out of the Cavaliers’ 68 games have gone over the point total.
- A total of 24 Heat games this season have gone over the point total.
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Moneyline Winner: Cavaliers (-122)
- Prediction: Cavaliers 114, Heat 107
- Cleveland has entered the game as favorites 45 times this season and won 32, or 71.1%, of those games.
- Miami has been chosen as underdogs in 31 games this year and has walked away with the win 10 times (32.3%) in those games.
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Darius Garland Points Prop: Under 21.5
- Darius Garland averages 18.7 points, 6.3 assists and 2.6 rebounds per contest.
- The 18.7 points Garland scores per game are 2.8 less than his over/under on Wednesday.
- He is 16-for-44 at hitting the over on his points prop this season.
- The Heat are the fourth-worst squad in the league in points scored (109.8 per game) but fourth-best in points conceded (109.3).
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Bam Adebayo Points Prop: Under 18.5
- Bam Adebayo is putting up 19.9 points, 10.6 rebounds and 4.0 assists per contest. He’s also draining 51.7% of his shots from the field.
- The 18.5-point over/under set for Adebayo on Wednesday is 1.4 lower than his scoring average of 19.9.
- Adebayo has had a points prop in 59 games this season, and has exceeded the total 27 times.
- So far this season, the Cavaliers are averaging 113.5 points per game (19th-ranked in NBA) and giving up 109.5 points per contest (sixth-ranked).
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