The Miami Heat (36-30) visit the Detroit Pistons (12-54) at Little Caesars Arena, beginning at 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, March 17, 2024. The Heat are 6.5-point favorites in the game, the fourth matchup between the teams this season. The over/under for the matchup is 214.5.
Our computer predictions for Sunday’s game may help you place an informed wager by picking the best bets available.
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Spread: Heat (-6.5) to Cover
- The line for this game set by DraftKings and the model’s prediction are essentially the same (within 0.3 points of each other).
- So far this season, Miami has put together a 32-32-2 record against the spread.
- The Heat have an ATS record of 6-8 when playing as at least 6.5-point favorites this season.
- Detroit has a 33-32-1 record against the spread this year.
- The Pistons have an ATS record of 24-23-1 when playing as at least 6.5-point underdogs this season.
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Total: Over 214.5
- The DraftKings point total for this game is more than two possessions lower (11.6 points) than the model projection. Put your money on the over.
- Miami’s games have finished with more than 214.5 points 42 times so far this season.
- There have been 53 Detroit’s games this year with more than 214.5 points scored.
- The Heat and their opponents have combined to go over the point total 24 out of 66 times this season.
- The Pistons and their opponents have combined to go over the point total 33 out of 66 times this season.
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Moneyline Winner: Heat (-265)
- Prediction: Heat 116, Pistons 110
- Miami has been the favorite in 36 games this season and won 26 (72.2%) of those contests.
- Detroit has been chosen as underdogs in 59 games this year and has walked away with the win nine times (15.3%) in those games.
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Jaden Ivey Points Prop: Under 16.5
- Jaden Ivey gets the Pistons 15.3 points, 3.5 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game while putting up 0.8 steals and 0.6 blocked shots.
- Ivey’s 15.3-point scoring average is 1.2 less than Sunday’s prop total.
- Ivey has hit the points prop over at a 23-for-53 clip this season.
- The Heat have been forced to count on their defense, which ranks fourth-best in the NBA (109.6 points allowed per game), as they rank fourth-worst in the league on offense with only 110.1 points per contest.
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