In a contest featuring a pair of the biggest stars in the league, Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets (47-20) will battle Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks (38-29) on March 17, 2024 at American Airlines Center. The Nuggets are favored by 3.5 points. The matchup has an over/under set at 229 points.
Our computer predictions for Sunday’s game can help you place an informed wager by picking the best bets available.
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Spread: Mavericks (+3.5) to Cover
- The model and DraftKings both have the Nuggets taking home the win, but the model has them winning by slightly less (1.4 points). Lean towards taking the Mavericks.
- Dallas has gone 37-30-0 ATS this year.
- The Mavericks are 8-8 ATS this year when playing as at least 3.5-point underdogs.
- So far this season, Denver has put together a 31-34-2 record against the spread.
- When playing as at least 3.5-point favorites this season, the Nuggets have an ATS record of 23-24-2.
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Total: Over 229
- The model projects a total 1.9 points higher than the one set by DraftKings for this game.
- Denver’s games have finished with more than 229 points 26 times so far this season.
- There have been 45 Dallas’ games this season with more than 229 points scored.
- The Nuggets and their opponents have combined to go over the point total 26 out of 67 times this season.
- So far this year, 33 out of the Mavericks’ 67 games with an over/under have gone over the point total.
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Moneyline Winner: Nuggets (-166)
- Prediction: Nuggets 116, Mavericks 115
- This season, Denver has won 43 out of the 57 games, or 75.4%, in which it has been favored.
- Dallas has won in nine, or 33.3%, of the 27 contests it has been named as the odds-on underdog this year.
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Michael Porter Jr. Rebounds Prop: Over 6.5
- Michael Porter Jr. posts 16.7 points, 7.0 rebounds and 1.5 assists per game. Defensively, he averages 0.5 steals and 0.7 blocks.
- His per-game rebounding average of 7.0 is 0.5 higher than his prop bet on Sunday (6.5).
- Sportsbooks have set a rebound total for him 64 times this season, and he has hit the over in 34 of those games.
- On the glass, the Mavericks are 23rd in the NBA in rebounds (42.2 per game). They are fifth-worst in rebounds conceded (45.2 per game).
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Luka Doncic Points Prop: Under 31.5
- Doncic puts up 34.3 points, 8.9 rebounds and 9.8 assists per game for the Mavericks.
- Sunday’s prop bet for Doncic is 31.5 points, 2.8 fewer than his season average.
- Doncic has gone over 34 times on a points prop this season (in 62 opportunities).
- Offensively, the Nuggets are putting up 114.8 points per game (15th-ranked in league). They are ceding 110.3 points per contest at the other end of the court (seventh-ranked).
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