The Oklahoma City Thunder (45-20) are 11-point favorites for their matchup with the Dallas Mavericks (38-28) on March 14, 2024, when two of the biggest stars in the league — the Thunder’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Mavericks’ Luka Doncic — will be on display at Paycom Center. The over/under is 235 for the matchup.
Our computer predictions for Thursday’s game may help you place an informed wager by picking the best bets available.
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Spread: Mavericks (+11) to Cover
- The model favors the Thunder by 8.7 points, just 2.3 less than the 11-point spread set by DraftKings.
- Dallas has a 36-30-0 record against the spread this season.
- The Mavericks have covered the spread once this year (1-1 ATS) when playing as at least 11-point underdogs.
- Oklahoma City is 39-25-1 against the spread this season.
- The Thunder have an ATS record of 6-5 when playing as at least 11-point favorites this season.
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Total: Over 235
- The model’s predicted total (235.1 points) and the DraftKings set total (235 points) are virtually the same for this contest.
- A total of 34 times so far this season, Oklahoma City and its opponent have combined to score more than 235 points.
- Dallas’ games have gone over 235 points on 39 occasions this year.
- So far this season, 33 out of the Thunder’s 65 games have gone over the point total.
- In the Mavericks’ 66 chances this season, the combined scoring has gone over the point total 32 times.
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Moneyline Winner: Thunder (-575)
- Prediction: Thunder 122, Mavericks 113
- This season, Oklahoma City has been favored 49 times and won 36, or 73.5%, of those games.
- Dallas has been an underdog in 26 games this season and has come away with the win nine times (34.6%) in those contests.
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Chet Holmgren Rebounds Prop: Over 9.5
- Chet Holmgren puts up 16.8 points, 7.8 rebounds and 2.7 assists per contest. At the other end, he averages 0.6 steals and 2.5 blocks (fourth in NBA).
- He averages 1.7 fewer rebounds than his prop bet Thursday of 9.5.
- He has recorded more rebounds than his total in 29 of his 64 games with a prop set this season.
- In 2023-24, the Mavericks are 23rd in the league in rebounds (42.2 per game) and fifth-worst in rebounds conceded (45.4).
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Kyrie Irving Rebounds Prop: Over 5.5
- Kyrie Irving is putting up 25.2 points, 5.1 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game. He’s making 48.9% of his shots from the floor and 41.3% from 3-point range, with 2.9 triples per game.
- He has pulled down 5.1 rebounds per game, 0.4 fewer than his prop bet for Thursday’s game (5.5).
- He has recorded more rebounds than his listed total in 22 of his 49 games with a prop this season.
- The Thunder have found it difficult to rack up rebounds this season, ranking fourth-worst in the league with 41.8 rebounds per game. They rank 24th by allowing 45.0 boards per contest.
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