The Denver Nuggets (45-20) visit the Miami Heat (35-29) on March 13, 2024 at FTX Arena. The Nuggets are favorites by 3.5 points as they enter the matchup winners of three in a row and are 9-1 in their last 10 games. The point total in the contest is 217.5.
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Nuggets vs. Heat Betting Odds
| Favorite | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Nuggets | -3.5 | 217.5 |
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Injury Report as of March 13
Nuggets: Vlatko Cancar: Out (Knee)
Heat: Josh Richardson: Out (Shoulder), Dru Smith: Out (Knee), Tyler Herro: Out (Foot), Jimmy Butler: Probable (Illness), Kevin Love: Out (Heel)
Computer Picks
| Spread Pick | Heat (+3.5) |
|---|---|
| Total Pick | Over (217.5) |
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.
Nuggets vs. Heat Stat Rankings
| Nuggets Avg. (Rank) | Heat Avg. (Rank) | |
|---|---|---|
| 115.0 (15th) | Points Scored | 110.5 (27th) |
| 110.7 (7th) | Points Allowed | 109.9 (6th) |
| 44.3 (8th) | Rebounds | 42.1 (24th) |
| 10.8 (13th) | Off. Rebounds | 9.5 (25th) |
| 11.5 (27th) | 3pt Made | 12.4 (17th) |
| 29.3 (3rd) | Assists | 25.9 (20th) |
| 11.8 (5th) | Turnovers | 12.1 (8th) |
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Nuggets Key Players
| Name | GP | PTS | REB | ASST | STL | BLK | 3PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic | 63 | 26.2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1 |
| Jamal Murray | 49 | 21.2 | 4 | 6.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 2.4 |
| Michael Porter Jr. | 64 | 16.6 | 7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 2.7 |
| Aaron Gordon | 59 | 13.9 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| Reggie Jackson | 65 | 10.1 | 2 | 3.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 1.2 |
Heat Key Players
| Name | GP | PTS | REB | ASST | STL | BLK | 3PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Rozier | 30 | 23.2 | 3.9 | 6.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 2.8 |
| Jimmy Butler | 45 | 21.7 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 1 |
| Bam Adebayo | 54 | 19.9 | 10.4 | 4 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Terry Rozier | 17 | 14.8 | 4.5 | 5.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 1.5 |
| Duncan Robinson | 59 | 13.4 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 2.9 |
Betting Trends
- The Nuggets have beaten the spread 29 times in 65 games.
- Against the spread as 3.5-point favorites or more, Denver is 21-24-2.
- There have been 26 Nuggets games (out of 65) that hit the over this season.
- In 42 games this year, Denver and its opponent have combined for more than 217.5 points.
- The average total for Nuggets games this season has been 225.7, which is 8.2 points higher than the total for this game.
- The Heat’s record against the spread is 31-31-2.
- Against the spread, as a 3.5-point underdog or more, Miami is 12-10.
- This year, 24 of the Heat’s 64 games have gone over the point total.
- Miami’s games have had over 217.5 points 35 times this season.
- The average total for Heat games is 220.4 points, 2.9 more than this game’s over/under.
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