The Denver Nuggets (45-20) are favored by 3.5 points over the Miami Heat (35-29) on March 13, 2024 at FTX Arena. The Nuggets are on a roll, having won three in a row and going 9-1 in their past 10 games. The matchup has a point total of 217.5.
Our computer predictions for Wednesday’s game can help you make an informed wager by picking the best bets available.
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Spread: Heat (+3.5) to Cover
- The model and DraftKings both have the Nuggets taking home the victory, but the model has them winning by slightly less (2.5 points). Lean towards taking the Heat.
- So far this season, Miami has compiled a 31-31-2 record against the spread.
- When playing as at least 3.5-point underdogs this season, the Heat have an ATS record of 12-10.
- Denver has a 29-34-2 record against the spread this season.
- The Nuggets have been favored by 3.5 points or more 47 times this season, and covered the spread in 21 of those matchups.
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Total: Over 217.5
- In this game, the model projects a total (223.1 points) a little higher than the DraftKings over/under (217.5 points).
- A total of 42 times so far this year, Denver and its opponent have combined for more than 217.5 points.
- There have been 35 Miami’s games this year with more than 217.5 points scored.
- The Nuggets and their opponents have combined to hit the over 26 out of 65 times this season.
- The Heat and their opponents have combined to hit the over 24 out of 64 times this season.
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Moneyline Winner: Nuggets (-162)
- Prediction: Nuggets 113, Heat 110
- Denver has entered the game as favorites 55 times this season and won 41, or 74.5%, of those games.
- Miami has won in 10, or 34.5%, of the 29 contests it has been named as the odds-on underdog this year.
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Jamal Murray Points Prop: Under 21.5
- Jamal Murray puts up 21.2 points, 6.6 assists and 4.0 rebounds per game.
- Murray’s 21.2 points per game are 0.3 fewer than Wednesday’s over/under.
- He has exceeded his points prop on 21 occasions this season (in 52 games with such a prop).
- Offensively, the Heat are the fourth-worst team in the league (110.5 points per game). Defensively, they are sixth (109.9 points allowed per game).
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