The Denver Nuggets (44-20) battle the Toronto Raptors (23-41) on March 11, 2024 at Ball Arena. The Nuggets are favored by 16 points as they enter the matchup winners of two in a row and are 8-2 in their last 10 games. The matchup has an over/under set at 229.5 points.
Our computer predictions for Monday’s game can help you place an informed wager by picking the best bets available.
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Spread: Raptors (+16) to Cover
- The spread for this matchup suggested by the model (13.6 points) is a little bit less than the 16-point edge DraftKings gives to the Nuggets, though the data still has them as the favorite.
- Toronto is 29-34-1 against the spread this year.
- So far this season, Denver has put together a 29-33-2 record against the spread.
- The Nuggets have won each of their two games this season when playing as at least 16-point favorites.
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Total: Under 229.5
- The model’s predicted total (228.9 points) and the DraftKings set total (229.5 points) are virtually the same for this contest.
- In 25 games this year, Denver and its opponent have combined to score more than 229.5 points.
- Toronto’s games have had over 229.5 points 34 times this year.
- A total of 25 out of the Nuggets’ 64 games this season have gone over the point total.
- In the Raptors’ 64 chances this season, the combined scoring has gone over the point total 33 times.
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Moneyline Winner: Nuggets (-1650)
- Prediction: Nuggets 121, Raptors 108
- Denver has won 40, or 74.1%, of the 54 games it has played as the favorite this season.
- Toronto has won in 10, or 24.4%, of the 41 contests it has been named as the odds-on underdog this year.
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Jamal Murray Points Prop: Over 22.5
- Jamal Murray puts up 21.1 points, 4.0 rebounds and 6.5 assists per game. Defensively, he averages 0.9 steals and 0.6 blocks.
- Monday’s over/under for Murray is 22.5 points, 1.4 more than his season average.
- He is 20-for-50 at scoring more than his points prop this season.
- The Raptors score 114.2 points per game and allow 118.2, making them 17th in the league on offense and 23rd defensively.
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Immanuel Quickley Points Prop: Under 20.5
- Immanuel Quickley is averaging 17.9 points, 4.6 rebounds and 6.5 assists per game. He is sinking 42.4% of his shots from the field and 41.5% from 3-point range, with 3.0 treys per contest.
- Quickley’s 17.9-point scoring average is 2.6 less than Monday’s prop total.
- Quickley has hit the points prop over at a 29-for-52 clip this season.
- The Nuggets are putting up 114.9 points per game (15th-ranked in NBA) this season, while giving up 110.5 points per contest (seventh-ranked).
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