The Dallas Mavericks (35-28) battle the Detroit Pistons (10-52) on March 9, 2024 at Little Caesars Arena. The Pistons are underdogs by a 9.5-point margin as they enter the matchup with a 5-5 record in their last 10 games. The matchup has an over/under set at 235.5 points.
Our computer predictions below will help you pick what are the best bets available for Saturday’s game.
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Spread: Pistons (+9.5) to Cover
- The spread for this game suggested by the model (7.2 points) is a little bit less than the 9.5-point edge DraftKings gives to the Mavericks, though the data still has them as the favorite.
- Detroit has a 31-30-1 record against the spread this season.
- When playing as at least 9.5-point underdogs this year, the Pistons have an ATS record of 18-13.
- So far this season, Dallas has compiled a 33-30-0 record against the spread.
- The Mavericks have an ATS record of 4-3 when playing as at least 9.5-point favorites this season.
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Total: Under 235.5
- The model’s predicted total (234.9 points) and the DraftKings set total (235.5 points) are virtually the same for this contest.
- Dallas and its opponent have broken the 235.5-point mark 36 times this season.
- Detroit’s games have finished with over 235.5 points scored 28 times this season.
- In the Mavericks’ 63 games this season, the combined scoring has gone over the point total 31 times.
- In the Pistons’ 62 chances this year, the combined scoring has gone over the point total 32 times.
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Moneyline Winner: Mavericks (-360)
- Prediction: Mavericks 121, Pistons 114
- This season, Dallas has been favored 36 times and won 25, or 69.4%, of those games.
- Detroit has come away with nine wins in the 57 contests it has been listed as the underdog this season.
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Kyrie Irving Points Prop: Over 26.5
- Kyrie Irving posts 25.6 points, 5.1 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game. At the other end, he averages 1.2 steals and 0.5 blocks.
- Saturday’s points prop for Irving is 26.5. That’s 0.9 more than his season average.
- Irving has had 47 chances to hit the over on a point prop this season and came through 22 times.
- On offense the Pistons are the 23rd-ranked squad in the league (112.2 points per game). Defensively they are fourth-worst (120.8 points conceded per game).
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Cade Cunningham Rebounds Prop: Over 4.5
- On a per-game basis, Cade Cunningham gets the Pistons 22.4 points, 4.1 rebounds and 7.5 assists. He also averages 0.9 steals and 0.4 blocked shots.
- His rebounding average — 4.1 — is 0.4 lower than his over/under on Saturday.
- He has grabbed more rebounds than his over/under in 26 of his 54 games with that prop available this season.
- The Mavericks rank 23rd in the NBA with 42.2 rebounds per game, but they are allowing 45.3 rebounds per game, which ranks fifth-worst in the league.
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