In a matchup featuring one of the hottest teams in the NBA, the Miami Heat (35-26) battle the Dallas Mavericks (34-28) at American Airlines Center on March 7, 2024. The Heat have won two in a row, and are 8-2 in their past 10 games, but the Mavericks are favorites by 4.5 points. The matchup has an over/under of 229 points.
Looking to make an informed wager on Thursday’s game? See the best bets available in this matchup (based on our computer predictions) below.
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Spread: Heat (+4.5) to Cover
- The spread for this game suggested by the model (2.8 points) is slightly less than the 4.5-point edge DraftKings gives to the Mavericks, though the data still has them as the favorite.
- Miami is 30-29-2 against the spread this year.
- The Heat have been an underdog by 4.5 points or more 19 times this season, and covered the spread in 10 of those contests.
- Dallas’ ATS record is 32-30-0 this season.
- The Mavericks are 9-10 ATS this season when playing as at least 4.5-point favorites.
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Total: Under 229
- The DraftKings total for this game, 229 points, and the model’s projected total, 228.9 points, are only 0.1 points apart.
- Dallas and its opponent have broken the 229-point mark 43 times this season.
- Miami’s games have had over 229 points 19 times this season.
- So far this season, 31 out of the Mavericks’ 62 games have gone over the point total.
- Heat games have gone over the point total 24 out of 61 times this year.
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Moneyline Winner: Mavericks (-185)
- Prediction: Mavericks 116, Heat 113
- Dallas has been the favorite in 35 games this season and won 24 (68.6%) of those contests.
- Miami has come away with 10 wins in the 27 contests it has been listed as the underdog this season.
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Kyrie Irving Points Prop: Under 25.5
- Kyrie Irving posts 25.7 points, 5.1 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game. At the other end, he averages 1.2 steals and 0.5 blocks.
- The 25.5-point total set for Irving on Thursday is 0.2 less than his season scoring average.
- Irving has exceeded his points prop total 22 times this season out of 46 games with such a prop.
- On offense, the Heat are the fourth-worst team in the league (110.8 points per game). Defensively, they are sixth (109.9 points conceded per game).
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Jimmy Butler Rebounds Prop: Over 5.5
- The Heat are receiving 21.9 points, 5.5 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game from Jimmy Butler this year.
- His per-game rebound average — 5.5 — equals his prop bet over/under in Thursday’s game.
- Oddsmakers have listed a rebound total for him 49 times this season, and he has hit the over in 18 of those games.
- The Mavericks, who rank 23rd in the league with 42.2 rebounds per game, are allowing 45.5 rebounds per contest, which is fourth-worst in the NBA.
Check out the prop bets available for Jimmy Butler and other Heat players in this matchup and sign up to place your bets with DraftKings Sportsbook.
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