The effective offense of the Indiana Pacers (35-28) will battle the strong defense of the Minnesota Timberwolves (43-19) at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on March 7, 2024. The Pacers are favorites, by 1.5 points. The over/under is set at 228 for the matchup.
Our computer predictions for Thursday’s game will help you place an informed wager by picking the best bets available.
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Spread: Timberwolves (+1.5) to Cover
- While DraftKings has the Pacers winning by 1.5, the model has the Timberwolves taking home the victory, with a considerable margin between the two spreads (4.9 points). Take the Timberwolves.
- So far this season, Minnesota has put together a 30-30-2 record against the spread.
- The Timberwolves are 7-4 ATS this season when playing as at least 1.5-point underdogs.
- Indiana has gone 33-27-3 ATS this season.
- The Pacers have covered the spread 13 times this season (13-15-1 ATS) when playing as at least 1.5-point favorites.
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Total: Over 228
- The model projects a total 4.5 points higher than the one set by DraftKings for this matchup.
- Indiana and its opponent have broken the 228-point mark 48 times this season.
- Minnesota’s games have had over 228 points 20 times this season.
- Pacers games have gone over the point total 33 out of 63 times this season.
- So far this season, 30 out of the Timberwolves’ 62 games with an over/under have gone over the point total.
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Moneyline Winner: Timberwolves (+105)
- Prediction: Timberwolves 118, Pacers 115
- Indiana has won 18, or 60%, of the 30 games it has played as the favorite this season.
- Minnesota has been chosen as underdogs in 12 games this year and has walked away with the win six times (50%) in those games.
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Pascal Siakam Points Prop: Under 20.5
- Pascal Siakam averages 22.2 points, 6.3 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game. Defensively, he averages 0.8 steals and 0.3 blocks.
- Siakam’s 22.2 points per game are 1.7 points more than Thursday’s over/under.
- He has had a points prop in 64 games this season, and has hit the over 26 times.
- The Timberwolves are 19th in the league in points scored (113.3 per game) and best in points conceded (106.5).
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Mike Conley Points Prop: Over 12.5
- Mike Conley gets the Timberwolves 10.6 points, 2.9 rebounds and 6.2 assists per contest while delivering 1.1 steals and 0.2 blocked shots.
- The 10.6 points Conley scores per game are 1.9 less than his over/under on Thursday (12.5).
- Conley has had 61 chances to hit the over on a point prop this season and came through 25 times.
- Because of the Pacers’ defensive struggles this year, ranking third-worst in the NBA with 122.0 points allowed per game, they’ve been forced to count on their offense, which ranks best in the league averaging 123.5 points per game.
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