The Dallas Mavericks (34-27) are favored, by five points, versus the Indiana Pacers (34-28) on March 5, 2024 at American Airlines Center. It’s a matchup featuring one of the top shooting teams in the NBA versus one of the best defending against the 3-pointer. The Mavericks are second in the league in treys made per game (15.0) while the Pacers are first in 3’s allowed (11.0). The matchup has an over/under set at 246.5 points.
Keep reading to dig into the best bets you can place on Tuesday’s game, based on our computer predictions.
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Spread: Pacers (+5) to Cover
- The spread for this game suggested by the model (3.3 points) is a little tighter than the 5-point edge DraftKings gives to the Mavericks, though the data still has them as the favorite.
- Indiana has a 32-27-3 record against the spread this season.
- The Pacers have an ATS record of 8-7-2 when playing as at least 5-point underdogs this season.
- Dallas is 32-29-0 against the spread this season.
- When playing as at least 5-point favorites this season, the Mavericks have an ATS record of 8-8.
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Total: Under 246.5
- The model predicts a total 5.6 points lower than the one set by DraftKings for this matchup.
- In 14 games this season, Dallas and its opponent have combined to score more than 246.5 points.
- Indiana’s games have had over 246.5 points 31 times this year.
- Mavericks games have gone over the point total 30 out of 61 times this season.
- Pacers games have gone over the point total 32 out of 62 times this year.
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Moneyline Winner: Mavericks (-192)
- Prediction: Mavericks 122, Pacers 119
- Dallas has been the favorite in 34 games this season and won 24 (70.6%) of those contests.
- Indiana has come away with 16 wins in the 32 contests it has been listed as the underdog this season.
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Kyrie Irving Points Prop: Over 28.5
- Kyrie Irving puts up 25.7 points, 5.1 rebounds and 5.1 assists per game. At the other end, he averages 1.2 steals and 0.5 blocks.
- Irving’s 25.7-point scoring average is 2.8 less than Tuesday’s prop total.
- Irving has had 45 chances to hit the over on a point prop this season and came through 22 times.
- On offense, the Pacers are the best squad in the league (123.3 points per game). However defensively they are third-worst (122.0 points conceded per game).
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Tyrese Haliburton Rebounds Prop: Over 3.5
- Tyrese Haliburton puts up 20.8 points, 3.8 rebounds and 11.3 assists per game for the Pacers.
- His rebounding average of 3.8 is lower than his over/under on Tuesday (3.5).
- He has grabbed more rebounds than his over/under in 19 of his 52 games with that prop available this season.
- The Mavericks rank fourth-worst in the NBA with 45.5 rebounds allowed per contest. Meanwhile, they are grabbing 42.2 boards per game (23rd-ranked in league).
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