The Denver Nuggets (42-19) are 8.5-point favorites for their matchup with the Phoenix Suns (35-26) on March 5, 2024, when a pair of the best players in the league — the Nuggets’ Nikola Jokic and the Suns’ Kevin Durant — will be on display at Ball Arena. The matchup has an over/under set at 223.5 points.
Our computer predictions below will help you pick what are the best bets available for Tuesday’s game.
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Spread: Suns (+8.5) to Cover
- The model favors the Nuggets by 6.5 points, just 2.0 less than the 8.5-point spread set by DraftKings.
- Phoenix has gone 24-35-2 ATS this year.
- Denver has a 27-32-2 record against the spread this season.
- The Nuggets are 8-9-1 ATS this season when playing as at least 8.5-point favorites.
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Total: Over 223.5
- In this game, the model projects a total (228.2 points) marginally higher than the DraftKings over/under (223.5 points).
- In 30 games this season, Denver and its opponent have combined to score more than 223.5 points.
- So far this season, 43 Phoenix’s games have featured over 223.5 points scored.
- A total of 23 out of the Nuggets’ 61 games this season have gone over the point total.
- So far this season, 27 out of the Suns’ 61 games with an over/under have hit the over.
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Moneyline Winner: Nuggets (-380)
- Prediction: Nuggets 117, Suns 111
- Denver has won 39, or 75%, of the 52 games it has played as the favorite this season.
- Phoenix has come away with five wins in the 15 contests it has been listed as the underdog this season.
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Nikola Jokic Rebounds Prop: Under 12.5
- Jokic puts up 25.9 points, 9.2 assists and 12.2 rebounds per contest.
- He has averaged 0.3 fewer rebounds per game (12.2) than his prop bet total in Tuesday’s game (12.5).
- He’s grabbed more rebounds than the total set for him by oddsmakers 31 times this season in his 61 games with a prop.
- The Suns are 13th in the NBA in rebounds per game (43.9) and fourth-best in rebounds allowed (41.7).
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