In a game featuring one of the hottest teams in the league against one that is struggling, the Miami Heat (34-26), 8-2 in their past 10 games, play the Detroit Pistons (9-51), who’ve dropped two straight and are 2-8 in their past 10. The Heat are favorites by 11 points for this contest at FTX Arena on March 5, 2024. The matchup has an over/under set at 217 points.
If you are aiming to gain an edge on Tuesday’s game, find out the best bets available for this matchup, in the article below (based on our computer predictions).
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Spread: Heat (-11) to Cover
- The DraftKings line for this game has the Heat favored by 11, while the model predicts they’ll win by slightly more (13.5 points).
- Miami’s ATS record is 30-28-2 this season.
- The Heat have been favored by 11 points or more this season once, and failed to cover the spread.
- Detroit’s ATS record is 29-30-1 this year.
- The Pistons are 13-9 ATS this season when playing as at least 11-point underdogs.
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Total: Over 217
- In this game, the model projects a total (226.8 points) substantially higher than the DraftKings over/under (217 points). Bet on the over.
- Miami’s games have finished with more than 217 points 33 times so far this year.
- Detroit’s games have gone over 217 points on 47 occasions this season.
- Heat games have gone over the point total 23 out of 60 times this season.
- In the Pistons’ 60 chances this year, the combined scoring has gone over the point total 30 times.
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Moneyline Winner: Heat (-625)
- Prediction: Heat 120, Pistons 107
- This season, Miami has won 24 out of the 33 games, or 72.7%, in which it has been favored.
- Detroit has been victorious in eight, or 14.5%, of the 55 contests it has been chosen as an underdog in this season.
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Bam Adebayo Points Prop: Over 21.5
- Bam Adebayo posts 20.4 points, 10.4 rebounds and 4.1 assists per contest. Defensively, he averages 1.0 steal and 1.0 block.
- The 21.5-point total set for Adebayo on Tuesday is 1.1 more points than his per-game scoring average.
- Adebayo has gone up against a points prop bet in 51 games this season, and he’s hit the over 26 times.
- In 2023-24, the Pistons are 23rd in the league on offense (112.1 points scored per game) and fourth-worst defensively (121.0 points allowed).
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