In a contest featuring one of the hottest teams in the NBA, the Miami Heat (33-25) battle the Denver Nuggets (40-19) at Ball Arena on February 29, 2024. The Heat have won five in a row, and are 8-2 in their past 10 games, but the Nuggets are favorites by six points. The point total is set at 215 for the matchup.
Keep reading for the best bets you can make on Thursday’s game, based on our computer predictions.
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Spread: Nuggets (-6) to Cover
- The DraftKings line for this game has the Nuggets favored by six, while the model predicts they’ll win by slightly more (7.3 points).
- Denver has a 26-31-2 record against the spread this season.
- The Nuggets have an ATS record of 12-13-1 when playing as at least 6-point favorites this season.
- Miami has a 29-27-2 record against the spread this year.
- The Heat have been an underdog by 6 points or more 11 times this season, and covered the spread in six of those games.
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Total: Over 215
- The DraftKings point total for this matchup is more than two possessions lower (7.7 points) than the model projection. Put your money on the over.
- Denver and its opponent have broken the 215-point mark 42 times this year.
- There have been 38 Miami’s games this year with more than 215 points scored.
- The Nuggets and their opponents have combined to hit the over 22 out of 59 times this season.
- A total of 22 Heat games this season have gone over the point total.
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Moneyline Winner: Nuggets (-238)
- Prediction: Nuggets 115, Heat 108
- This season, Denver has been favored 50 times and won 37, or 74%, of those games.
- Miami has come away with 10 wins in the 26 contests it has been listed as the underdog this season.
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Michael Porter Jr. Points Prop: Under 14.5
- Michael Porter Jr. averages 16.2 points, 1.4 assists and 7.0 rebounds per contest.
- Porter’s 16.2 points per game are 1.7 higher than Thursday’s prop total.
- Porter has exceeded his points prop total 26 times this season out of 55 games with such a prop.
- The Heat are the fourth-worst team in the league in points scored (110.6 per game) but third-best in points conceded (109.9).
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Bam Adebayo Rebounds Prop: Under 10.5
- Bam Adebayo delivers 20.3 points, 10.5 rebounds and 4.1 assists per game for the Heat.
- He has pulled down 10.5 boards per game, matching his over/under for Thursday.
- This will be his 50th game with a rebound prop this season, and so far he has gone over on 25 occasions.
- The Nuggets rank eighth in the NBA with 44.4 rebounds per game this season. Meanwhile, they rank sixth with 42.1 rebounds allowed per contest.
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