In a contest between one of the hottest squads in the NBA and one that is struggling, the Miami Heat (32-25), winners of four in a row, and 8-2 in their past 10 games, play the Portland Trail Blazers (15-41), who’ve dropped eight straight and are 2-8 in their past 10. The Heat are favorites by 7.5 points for this contest at Moda Center on February 27, 2024. The matchup’s over/under is 212.5.
Looking to gain an edge on Tuesday’s game? See the best bets available in this matchup (based on our computer predictions) in this article.
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Spread: Trail Blazers (+7.5) to Cover
- The model and DraftKings both have the Heat taking home the win, but the model has them winning by slightly less (6.3 points). Lean towards taking the Trail Blazers.
- So far this season, Portland has put together a 25-31-0 record against the spread.
- The Trail Blazers have covered the spread 17 times this season (17-17 ATS) when playing as at least 7.5-point underdogs.
- So far this season, Miami has compiled a 28-27-2 record against the spread.
- The Heat have been favored by 7.5 points or more seven times this season, and covered the spread in four of those contests.
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Total: Over 212.5
- The model predicts a total (222.4 points) much higher than the one set by DraftKings for this matchup (212.5 points). Take the over.
- Miami’s games have had more than 212.5 points scored on 40 occasions this season.
- Portland’s games have gone over 212.5 points on 41 occasions this year.
- A total of 22 out of the Heat’s 57 games this season have hit the over.
- The Trail Blazers and their opponents have combined to go over the point total 26 out of 56 times this year.
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Moneyline Winner: Heat (-298)
- Prediction: Heat 114, Trail Blazers 108
- Miami has been the favorite in 31 games this season and won 22 (71%) of those contests.
- Portland has been victorious in 14, or 28%, of the 50 contests it has been chosen as an underdog in this season.
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Duncan Robinson Rebounds Prop: Over 2.5
- Duncan Robinson posts 13.2 points, 2.4 rebounds and 3.0 assists per contest, shooting 45.1% from the floor and 40.6% from downtown with 2.8 made 3-pointers per game.
- He has pulled down 2.4 boards per game, which is less than his prop bet in Tuesday’s game (2.5).
- This will be his 28th game with a rebound prop this season, and so far he’s hit the over on 14 occasions.
- The Trail Blazers are 25th in the league in rebounds per game (41.7) and 20th in rebounds conceded (44.4).
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Anfernee Simons Points Prop: Under 22.5
- Anfernee Simons is averaging 22.5 points, 3.5 rebounds and 5.2 assists per contest. He is sinking 42.7% of his shots from the floor and 38.0% from beyond the arc, with 3.3 treys per contest.
- Simons’ scoring average (22.5) is equal to Tuesday’s points prop for him.
- Simons has gone over on his points prop total 11 times this season out of 32 games with such a prop.
- Because of the Heat’s offensive struggles this season, ranking fourth-worst in the NBA with 110.7 points per game, they’ve been forced to lean on their defense, which ranks fourth-best in the league by giving up 110.1 points per game.
Check out the prop bets available for Anfernee Simons and other Trail Blazers players in this matchup and sign up to place your bets with DraftKings Sportsbook.
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