The Atlanta Hawks (25-32) are two-point favorites over the Utah Jazz (27-31) on February 27, 2024 at State Farm Arena. It’s a contest featuring one of the highest-scoring teams in the NBA (Hawks, fourth in points scored per game) versus one of the poorest defensively (Jazz, 25th in points conceded). The matchup has an over/under set at 238.5 points.
Our computer predictions in this article will help you decide what are the best bets available for Tuesday’s game.
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Spread: Jazz (+2) to Cover
- The line for this game set by DraftKings and the model’s prediction are essentially the same (within 0.5 points of each other).
- Utah is 32-26-0 against the spread this year.
- The Jazz have an ATS record of 21-17 when playing as at least 2-point underdogs this season.
- Atlanta has gone 18-39-0 ATS this season.
- The Hawks are 8-21 ATS this season when playing as at least 2-point favorites.
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Total: Over 238.5
- In this matchup, the model projects a total (241.4 points) slightly higher than the DraftKings over/under (238.5 points).
- Atlanta’s games have finished with more than 238.5 points 34 times so far this season.
- So far this year, 26 Utah’s games have featured more than 238.5 points scored.
- Hawks games have hit the over 30 out of 57 times this season.
- The Jazz and their opponents have combined to go over the point total 32 out of 58 times this season.
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Moneyline Winner: Hawks (-130)
- Prediction: Hawks 121, Jazz 120
- This season, Atlanta has won 18 out of the 32 games, or 56.2%, in which it has been favored.
- Utah has been chosen as underdogs in 41 games this year and has walked away with the win 15 times (36.6%) in those games.
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Bogdan Bogdanovic Points Prop: Over 18.5
- Bogdan Bogdanovic puts up 16.9 points, 2.8 assists and 3.3 rebounds per contest.
- Bogdanovic’s 16.9-point scoring average is 1.6 less than Tuesday’s over/under.
- Bogdanovic has hit the points prop over at a 23-for-44 clip this season.
- The Jazz put up 118.0 points per game and give up 120.4, ranking them ninth in the league on offense and 25th defensively.
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Collin Sexton Points Prop: Over 17.5
- Collin Sexton is putting up 17.8 points, 2.6 rebounds and 4.7 assists per game. He’s sinking 48.5% of his shots from the floor and 39.2% from beyond the arc, with 1.6 triples per contest.
- The 17.5-point total set for Sexton on Tuesday is 0.3 fewer points than his per-game scoring average.
- He has gone up against a points prop bet in 52 games this season, and he’s hit the over 31 times.
- Although the Hawks are ceding 123.3 points per game (second-worst in NBA) on defense, their offense has been very good, as they rank fourth-best in the league by posting 121.1 points per game.
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