In a game featuring a pair of the best teams in the NBA defending against the 3-pointer, the Denver Nuggets (37-19) are favored by 8.5 points against the Portland Trail Blazers (15-39) at Moda Center on February 23, 2024. The Nuggets allow just 11.5 treys per game (third in league), and the Trail Blazers give up 11.5 (third). The over/under for the matchup is set at 215.5.
Our computer predictions in this article will help you decide what are the best bets available for Friday’s game.
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Spread: Nuggets (-8.5) to Cover
- The DraftKings line for this matchup is within 0.3 points of the model. Stay away from this one.
- Denver’s ATS record is 23-31-2 this season.
- The Nuggets have been favored by 8.5 points or more 17 times this season, and covered the spread in seven of those games.
- So far this season, Portland has put together a 25-29-0 record against the spread.
- The Trail Blazers have an ATS record of 15-15 when playing as at least 8.5-point underdogs this season.
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Total: Over 215.5
- The model predicts a total (224.8 points) much higher than the one set by DraftKings for this game (215.5 points). Take the over.
- In 39 games this season, Denver and its opponent have combined to score more than 215.5 points.
- There have been 37 Portland’s games this year with more than 215.5 points scored.
- So far this season, 21 out of the Nuggets’ 56 games have gone over the point total.
- A total of 25 Trail Blazers games this season have gone over the point total.
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Moneyline Winner: Nuggets (-375)
- Prediction: Nuggets 117, Trail Blazers 108
- Denver has entered the game as favorites 48 times this season and won 35, or 72.9%, of those games.
- Portland has won in 14, or 28.6%, of the 49 contests it has been named as the odds-on underdog this year.
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Nikola Jokic Rebounds Prop: Over 12.5
- Nikola Jokic averages 26.0 points, 12.1 boards and 9.1 assists per contest, shooting 58.2% from the field and 35.2% from beyond the arc with 1.0 made 3-pointers per contest.
- His per-game rebound average — 12.1 — is 0.4 fewer than his prop bet over/under for Friday’s game (12.5).
- He has gone over his rebound total in 28 of 57 games with a prop so far this season.
- In 2023-24, the Trail Blazers are fifth-worst in the league in rebounds (41.4 per game) and 21st in rebounds allowed (44.5).
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