The Milwaukee Bucks (34-19) are one-point favorites for their matchup with the Denver Nuggets (36-17) on February 12, 2024, when two of the best players in the NBA — the Bucks’ Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Nuggets’ Nikola Jokic — will be on display at Fiserv Forum. The matchup’s point total is set at 230.
Our computer predictions below will help you pick what are the best bets available for Monday’s game.
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Spread: Bucks (-1) to Cover
- The DraftKings line for this matchup is within 0.1 points of the model. Stay away from this one.
- Milwaukee is 20-32-1 ATS this season.
- The Bucks have covered the spread 19 times this season (19-27-1 ATS) when playing as at least 1-point favorites.
- Denver is 22-29-2 against the spread this year.
- The Nuggets have been an underdog by 1 point or more seven times this season, and covered the spread in three of those matchups.
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Total: Over 230
- In this matchup, the model projects a total (233.9 points) a little higher than the DraftKings over/under (230 points).
- A total of 43 times so far this season, Milwaukee and its opponent have combined for more than 230 points.
- There have been 21 Denver’s games this season with more than 230 points scored.
- In the Bucks’ 53 games this season, the combined scoring has gone over the point total 29 times.
- So far this year, 20 out of the Nuggets’ 53 games with an over/under have hit the over.
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Moneyline Winner: Bucks (-118)
- Prediction: Bucks 118, Nuggets 116
- This season, Milwaukee has been favored 47 times and won 34, or 72.3%, of those games.
- Denver has been an underdog in seven games this season and has come away with the win two times (28.6%) in those contests.
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Giannis Antetokounmpo Rebounds Prop: Under 11.5
- Antetokounmpo puts up 30.7 points, 11.2 rebounds and 6.3 assists per contest. At the other end, he averages 1.4 steals (eighth in NBA) and 1.1 blocks.
- He has averaged 11.2 rebounds per game, 0.3 fewer than his prop bet in Monday’s game (11.5).
- He’s grabbed more rebounds than the total set for him by oddsmakers 22 times this season in his 53 games with a prop.
- In 2023-24, the Nuggets are 10th in the NBA in rebounds (44.0 per game) and fifth-best in rebounds allowed (41.7).
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Nikola Jokic Points Prop: Over 26.5
- On a per-game basis, Jokic gets the Nuggets 26.2 points, 12.2 rebounds and 9.0 assists. He also averages 1.2 steals and 0.9 blocked shots.
- The 26.2 points Jokic scores per game are 0.3 less than his over/under on Monday.
- Jokic has gone over 25 times on a points prop this season (in 53 opportunities).
- The Bucks are surrendering 119.3 points per game this year (23rd-ranked in NBA), but they’ve really shined offensively, posting 122.9 points per game (second-best).
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