The Boston Celtics (40-12) battle the Miami Heat (28-24) on February 11, 2024 at FTX Arena. The Celtics are big favorites, by six points, in a contest pitting one of the highest-scoring teams in the NBA versus one of the top defensive teams. The Celtics are fourth in points scored per game (120.6), while the Heat are fourth in points allowed (110.8). The matchup has an over/under of 226 points.
Keep reading for the best bets you can make on Sunday’s game, based on our computer predictions.
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Spread: Celtics (-6) to Cover
- Both DraftKings and the model expect the Celtics to walk away with the win, but the model spread (7.3) is 1.3 points further in their direction.
- So far this season, Boston has compiled a 24-26-2 record against the spread.
- The Celtics have covered the spread 19 times this season (19-17-1 ATS) when playing as at least 6-point favorites.
- So far this season, Miami has put together a 23-27-2 record against the spread.
- The Heat have covered the spread three times this season (3-5 ATS) when playing as at least 6-point underdogs.
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Total: Over 226
- The model’s predicted total (226.5 points) and the DraftKings set total (226 points) are virtually the same for this contest.
- Boston’s games have finished with more than 226 points 30 times so far this season.
- Miami’s games have finished with over 226 points scored 19 times this year.
- A total of 26 out of the Celtics’ 52 games this season have hit the over.
- The Heat and their opponents have combined to go over the point total 21 out of 52 times this year.
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Moneyline Winner: Celtics (-225)
- Prediction: Celtics 117, Heat 110
- Boston has entered the game as favorites 50 times this season and won 39, or 78%, of those games.
- Miami has been victorious in six, or 28.6%, of the 21 contests it has been chosen as an underdog in this season.
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Jaylen Brown Points Prop: Under 18.5
- Jaylen Brown puts up 22.1 points, 5.5 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game. At the other end, he averages 1.1 steals and 0.6 blocks.
- Brown’s 22.1 points per game are 3.6 higher than Sunday’s prop total.
- So far this season, Brown is 23-for-52 at going over the total set for his points prop.
- The Heat are the fourth-worst team in the NBA in points scored (110.5 per game) but fourth-best in points allowed (110.8).
See all available player props for Jaylen Brown and other Celtics players in this matchup and sign up to place your bets with DraftKings Sportsbook.
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